Washington Commanders (1-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-2) in London
The Commanders pulled off a shocking upset over the Seahawks last week as 7.5-point home underdogs, but that game was pretty fluky, as the Commanders won the turnover battle by 3, had a 50-yard interception return touchdown, and still only managed to win by 2. The Seahawks won the first down rate battle by 17.42% and the yards per play battle by 2.86, which are much more predictive than turnover margin. That loss also puts the Commanders in a bad spot this week, as teams that win as home underdogs of 5 or more cover the spread at just a 40.3% rate the following week. After such a big win last week, it is very unlikely the Commanders bring their best effort for the Colts this week.
Going further, teams that win the turnover battle by 3 and win as home underdogs of 7 or more are just 2-14 ATS the following week, with an average turnover margin of -0.3. On top of that, the favorite tends to cover in international games, going 40-24-2 ATS, including 25-12 ATS as favorites of 3 or more. We aren’t getting great line value with the Colts at -3.5 (or -4 in some places) in normal circumstances, but the Commanders are in such a bad spot this week that the Colts are an easy bet.
Indianapolis Colts 34 Washington Commanders 26
Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3.5
Confidence: High
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