Tennessee Titans (0-3) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
This line is pretty high, favoring the Ravens by 11.5, but I don’t think it is high enough. Through three games, the Ravens rank 6th in first down rate differential (+3.34%), 5th in yards per play differential (+1.59), and 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency (+8.80), while ranking 5th in my roster rankings. The Titans, meanwhile, rank 25th in first down rate differential (-3.19%), 13th in yards per play differential (-0.14), and 29th in schedule adjusted efficiency (-6.97), while ranking 30th in my roster rankings.
This is a matchup of one of the best teams in the league at home against one of the worst teams in the league and normally these types of games feature lines of 14 or more, so either the Ravens are a little underrated or the Titans are a little overrated. If you’re worried about laying this many points, the Ravens lead the league with 42 wins by 14 or more since Lamar Jackson’s first full season as a starter in 2019, even though Jackson has missed significant time with injury and even though the Ravens only rank third in wins over that time period, with about 54% of their 78 games over that stretch coming by 14 points or more. This seems likely to be another blowout win.
Baltimore Ravens 27 Tennessee Titans 10
Pick against the spread: Baltimore -11.5
Confidence: High
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