Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Typically the rule of thumb on Thursday Night Football is to bet the home team unless it is a divisional game or the road team is the superior team. It is very tough for an inferior team to travel on a short week and play an unfamilar non-divisional opponent and, as a result, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 60.7% rate as long as both teams are on short rest. That is even more pronounced when the home favorite is favored by a lot, as home favorites of more than a touchdown are 17-7-1 ATS and 24-1 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game, against an average line of 11.
That is the case in this one, with the Cowboys favored by 9.5 at home against the Cowboys. If anything, the Cowboys should be favored by more than this. I have a 9-point gap between these two teams in my roster rankings, with the Buccaneers missing starting quarterback Baker Mayfield and talented safety Antoine Winfield, while the Cowboys are likely to get talented guard Tyler Smith back from injury and also added talented cornerback Joey Porter via trade last week. Between the line value we are getting and the trend on the Cowboys’ side, the Cowboys are worth a bet at -9.5 and I would increase this to a high confidence pick if Smith is confirmed to be making his season debut this week.
Update: Smith is playing, but Porter was surprisingly ruled out with an illness, so I am leaving them as a medium confidence bet.
Dallas Cowboys 33 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Pick against the spread: Dallas -9.5
Confidence: Medium
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