Houston Texans (0-4) at Tennessee Titans (0-4)
When I saw this line favoring the Texans by a touchdown, I assumed this game was in Houston and I did a double take when I saw that the game with in Tennessee. Not only is this the latest a winless team has been favored by this many points on the road, but there has never even been a winless team favored by this many points on the road in week 3 or week 4. In fact, this is the latest a winless team has even been favored by more than 4 points on the road and only the 5th time a winless team has been road favorites of any amount in week 5 or later (the previous 4 teams are 1-3 ATS).
That isn’t a big enough sample size to tell us anything meaningful about winless teams as road favorites, but if we expand the sample size to road favorites on a losing streak or 4 or more at any point in the season, those teams are just 20-33 ATS, underperforming the spread by an average of 3 points per game. On top of that, this game just doesn’t seem like the type of game that would necessitate a situation that has never happened before, with an 0-4 team favored by a touchdown on the road.
The Texans are better than their record, as they have faced a tough schedule and could legitimately be 3-1 right now if a few things had gone differently, with three of their losses coming by a combined 11 points. They rank 15th in schedule adjusted efficiency and 14th in my roster rankings. However, the Titans aren’t so bad that they deserve to be home underdogs of a full touchdown. In fact, I don’t even think they are the worst team in the league, ranking 20th in yards per play differential, 21st in first down rate differential, 23rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, and 26th in my roster rankings. My calculated line has the Texans favored by 3 and that is before taking into account the trend about road favorites on a long losing streak. The Titans are worth a big bet this week.
Houston Texans 17 Tennessee Titans 16
Pick against the spread: Tennessee +7
Confidence: High
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