Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) in London
The Eagles are 2-2, but things are going as bad for them as any team in the league. Their two wins came by a combined 6 points against the Titans and Commanders, who are a combined 1-7. Their losses then came by 20 against the Bears and their third string quarterback and then by 4 against the Rams in a game that was much more lopsided than the final score, with the Rams winning the first down rate battle by +12.50% and the yards per play battle by +2.42. On the season, the Eagles rank 23rd in yards per play differential (-0.52), 31st in first down rate differential (-5.78%), and 31st in schedule adjusted efficiency (-9.42) and they have yet to cover the spread in any of their games.
On top of that, they are in a dire injury situation. Already missing top wide receiver Devonta Smith, starting tight end Dallas Goedert, starting guard Landon Dickerson, and top linebacker Zach Baun going into last week’s game, the Eagles lost starting right tackle Lane Johnson for personal reasons before the game and then lost feature back Saquon Barkley, his backup Tank Bigsby, starting guard Cam Jurgens, top cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, and talented edge defender Jonathan Greenard in last week’s game. It is possible some of those players will return this week, but not the majority of them and, in their current injury situation, this is one of the worst teams in the league.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, have been one of the best teams in the league through four games, ranking 18th in yards per play differential (-0.31), 5th in first down rate differential (+4.30%), and 8th in schedule adjusted efficiency (+5.89). I currently have them 10 points better than the Eagles in my roster rankings and, while that could change slightly depending on injury updates, it won’t change significantly. On top of that, the Jaguars are in a good spot in this neutral site game in London for a couple reasons.
For one, it isn’t really a neutral site game because the Jaguars play in London more frequently than any other team, making this something of a home game for them, especially when they are good and can give the fans something to root for. On top of that, the better team tends to cover in international games anyway, with favorites going 41-24-2 ATS, including 26-12 ATS as favorites of 3 or more. This line has already increased from 4.5 to 6.5 and I want to lock it in at 6.5 before it increases further, as it appears the books just set too low of a line and didn’t fully take into account all of the Eagles’ injuries.
Jacksonville Jaguars 27 Philadelphia Eagles 13
Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -6.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
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