Detroit Lions (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
The Lions have been great offensively through four weeks, ranking 9th in yards per play (5.83), 5th in first down rate (35.64%), and 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency (+5.17). However, as good as they have been on offense, their opponents have been even better offensively against them because of how bad their defense has been, ranking 28th in yards per play allowed (5.89), 32nd in first down rate allowed (37.92%), and 32nd in schedule adjusted efficiency (-8.41). The good news is offensive performance tends to be much more predictive than defensive performance week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights offensive performance heavier than defensive performance, the Lions rank 16th and they rank 9th in my roster rankings.
The Lions have a good chance to bounce back in a big way this week in Arizona. The Cardinals entered the season as one of the worst teams in the league, rank 31st in yards per play differential (-1.65), 30th in first down rate differential (-4.46%), and 30th in schedule adjusted efficiency (-8.20), and now are without by far their top offensive lineman Paris Johnson for the season, dropping them to 31st in my roster rankings, about 9.5 points behind the Lions. The Lions typically bounce back after a loss well in the Dan Campbell era anyway, going 25-12 ATS, outperforming the spread by an average of 2.9 points per game. The Lions should win this one pretty easily and this spread is way too low at 5.5.
Detroit Lions 38 Arizona Cardinals 28
Pick against the spread: Detroit -5.5
Confidence: High
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