Cleveland Browns (3-1) at New York Jets (1-3)
Both of these teams were expected to be among the worst teams in the league coming into the season. The Jets are 1-3, as would have been expected, but the Browns are a surprising 3-1. However, the Browns have not played nearly as well as their record suggests and, if you look deeper into the numbers, how they have performed is much more in line with what we would have expected from this team, as they rank 19th in yards per play differential (-0.34), 29th in first down rate differential (-4.15%), and 28th in schedule adjusted efficiency (-5.63).
In fact, the Jets have performed slightly better, despite their worse record, ranking 12th in yards per play differential (-0.01), 23rd in first down rate differential (-2.47%), and 21st in schedule adjusted efficiency (-3.87) and they have a one point edge in my roster rankings as well. Despite that, this line only favors the Jets by 1.5 points at home, suggesting these two teams are about even or that the Browns are the slightly better team, with the home team on average winning by two points. My calculated line is Jets -3, so we are getting enough line value at 1.5 for the Jets to be worth a small bet.
New York Jets 23 Cleveland Browns 20
Pick against the spread: NY Jets -1.5
Confidence: Medium
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