Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (0-4)
Typically, taking Joe Burrow after a loss is a smart move, as he is 21-11-1 ATS after a loss in his career, outperforming the spread by an average of 2.2 points per game. He lost last week to the Jaguars after losing the previous week to the Steelers, but the Jaguars are a significantly better team than the Bengals, so I was not surprised that the Bengals did not win or cover, even coming off of a loss. In fact, I picked the Jaguars for pick ‘em purposes in that game despite the trend working against them.
This week is different, with the Bengals favored by 6.5 points in Miami against a Dolphins team that is the worst in the league by far, with more than half of their cap space committed to players no longer on the roster and their best player, running back De’Von Achane, out for the season. The Dolphins rank dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency at -10.83, with no other team worse than -9.42, and they are 3.5 points worse than any other team in my roster rankings.
JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins are both questionable for the Bengals this week, but both practiced in full on Friday I think their questionability has already been factored into this spread. Even if Higgins and Chase somehow both don’t play and even before factoring in Joe Burrow’s history after a loss, my calculated line is Cincinnati -6.5. When you add in that Chase and Higgins are likely to play and that Burrow is coming off of a loss, the Bengals are a smart bet this week. I am keeping this at a medium confidence bet for now, but if Chase and Higgins both are confirmed playing and this line remains the same, I would increase the confidence.
Cincinnati Bengals 31 Miami Dolphins 20
Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -6.5
Confidence: Medium
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