Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) at New York Jets (2-0)

This game had the biggest line movement from last week to this week of any line that didn’t involve an injured quarterback, as the Jets have gone from 3.5 point home underdogs to 2.5 point home favorites here this week. I usually love to fade huge line movements like that because they tend to be overreactionary and this one is no exception. Some of that movement is understandable, as the Eagles lost three important defensive starters, Cedric Thornton, Kiko Alonso, and Mychal Kendricks, with injury last week and couldn’t do anything offensively against the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Jets went into Indianapolis and won by the final score of 20-7, backing up an impressive 31-10 week 1 win over the Browns.

However, if the Eagles had hit a makeable field goal in Atlanta week 1, they’d very likely be 1-1 right now and we wouldn’t be too worried about them. Meanwhile, the Jets have been overly reliant on winning the turnover battle through 2 weeks. They’ve had a +4 turnover margin in both games thus far, playing a huge part in their success, but that’s very tough to sustain. Teams that have a +4 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week.

None of this is to say that the line shouldn’t have moved somewhat, as the Eagles are missing essential defensive personnel and their offense has struggled in Sam Bradford’s first year in town, while the Jets have proven they are at least a decent team. Ryan Fitzpatrick has continued to play solidly, as he did in Tennessee in 2013 and Houston in 2014, and might be the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington was healthy. He’s also had solid offensive play around him and new head coach Todd Bowles has this defense playing well too. However, they’ll be without wide receiver Eric Decker in this one, while running back Chris Ivory is going to be a gametime decision, and I think we’re getting a good deal getting a few points with the Eagles. I wouldn’t put money on it, but the Eagles are my pick.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 New York Jets 17 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

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