Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-0)
This is the toughest game of the week for me. The Cowboys usually struggle at home, going 20-31 ATS at home since 2009. However, they are home underdogs here and, while that’s been a rarity, they are 6-3 ATS as home underdogs. The Cowboys are only home underdogs because their offense that was essentially injury free in 2014 is now missing both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant for an extended period of time. On top of that, they are also missing their top cornerback Orlando Scandrick and their top three defensive ends (Greg Hardy, Randy Gregory, and Jeremy Mincey) on a defense that wasn’t that good to begin with, though having Sean Lee back from injury after he missed all of last season has been huge.
The Falcons could overlook the Cowboys because of how banged up they are. Remember, while the Falcons are 2-0, they are a few plays away from being 0-2. They rank just 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the also 2-0 Cowboys rank 6th. It’s only two weeks, but that’s certainly consistent with what happened last season, when the Cowboys ranked 8th and the Falcons ranked 23rd. Of course, the Cowboys are way more banged up now than they were then so I’m not confident at all, but I am taking them.
Atlanta Falcons 24 Dallas Cowboys 23
Pick against the spread: Dallas +1.5