Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)
The Eagles are only favored by 6 points here over the Buccaneers this week, after being favored by 8 points in the early line last week. I think that’s too low, as the Eagles rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 26th in rate of moving the chains. The Eagles are going to be without quarterback Sam Bradford in this one, but I’m not so sure that Mark Sanchez is much of a downgrade. Sanchez is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL and the Eagles offense has struggled this season, ranking 20th in rate of moving the chains. They’ve been carried by a defense that ranks 6th.
I can’t be confident in the Eagles for two reasons. For one, they’re missing running back Ryan Mathews and possibly left tackle Jason Peters with injury, while Tampa Bay is just missing defensive end George Johnson. The second reason is that the Eagles play in Detroit on Thanksgiving in 4 days. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game. The Eagles have a strong defense and should be able to cover as 6 point favorites at home here over Tampa Bay, but I’m not confident.
Philadelphia Eagles 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6