New York Jets (5-4) at Houston Texans (4-5)
I’m torn on this one. On one hand, I think this line is probably too high at 3.5 in favor of the visiting Jets in Houston. The Texans are no pushover and have won 3 of their last 4 games, including last week in Cincinnati against the previously undefeated Bengals. They rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re likely going to be missing quarterback Brian Hoyer, who has been playing well, but their defense is solid too, ranking 12th in rate of moving the chains allowed, and TJ Yates probably isn’t a huge downgrade from Hoyer.
The Jets, meanwhile, rank 5th, though they are probably going to be without talented defensive end Sheldon Richardson. Considering close to one in four games are decided by a field goal or less, the Jets shouldn’t be favored by 3.5 here. However, the Texans are in a bad spot. Teams are 36-58 ATS since 1989 off of a road victory as 10+ point underdogs and the Texans could be overconfident after last week’s victory in Cincinnati. That win wasn’t totally fluky as the Texans are a solid team, but there were definitely some fluky aspects to it. The Texans are still the pick, but it’s a no confidence pick.
New York Jets 16 Houston Texans 13
Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5