Los Angeles Chargers (0-3) at Seattle Seahawks (2-1)
The Seahawks lost last week in surprising fashion to the Commanders as 7.5-point road favorites, but that game was pretty fluky, as the Commanders won the turnover battle by 3, had a 50-yard interception return touchdown, and still only managed to win by 2. The Seahawks won the first down rate battle by 17.42% and the yards per play battle by 2.86, which are much more predictive than turnover margin. On the season, the Seahawks rank 2nd in first down rate differential (+10.37%), yards per play differential (+2.33), and schedule adjusted efficiency (+14.08).
That is despite the fact that they have had key injuries on both sides of the ball, with quarterback Sam Darnold missing all of one and most of another game, while their top-3 safeties Nick Emmanwori, Julian Love, and Ty Okada have been limited to 45 snaps, 119 snaps, and 0 snaps respectively by injuries. Darnold returned last week, while Love is expected to return from a one-game absence this week and Emmanwori is expected to see his biggest snap count of the season as he continues working his way back from off-season ankle surgery.
The Seahawks’ loss last week also puts them in a good spot this week, as teams cover the spread at a 59.6% rate the week after losing as road favorites of 6 or more. Even without that trend, we are getting some line value with the Seahawks, who have an 8-point advantage over the Chargers in my roster rankings. I like the Seahawks to bounce back this week and I think they are worth a bet as 7-point home favorites over the Chargers.
Seattle Seahawks 27 Los Angeles Chargers 17
Pick against the spread: Seattle -7
Confidence: Medium
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