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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4) The Eagles were blown out last week at home against the Cowboys, but they barely tried in a game which meant very little to them, resting several key players ahead of the post-season. Even with that big loss factored in though, the…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, a predictive metric based on yards per play, first down rate, and strength of schedule, the Steelers are by far the worst team in the league to qualify for the post-season, finishing 30th, 16th, 17th, and…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2021 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
New England Patriots (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (11-6) These two teams are pretty similar, as they have solid records, but even more impressive point differentials, with the Bills ranking 1st at +194 and the Patriots ranking 3rd at +159. That carries over to efficiency rating, which is more predictive week-to-week,…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: 2021 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) I don’t normally lock games in this early in the week and this is especially risky given the NFL’s COVID protocols, but neither of these teams has any significant questionable players according to the early practice report and like the Raiders enough…
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Continue reading →: 2021 Week 18 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week LAR -4 vs. SF High Confidence NA Medium Confidence JAX +15.5 vs. IND NYG +7 vs. WAS TB -8.5 vs. CAR SEA +6 @ ARZ NE -5.5 @ MIA CHI +4.5 @ MIN Low Confidence KC -11.5 @ DEN NYJ +16 @ BUF LV +3 vs.…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 18 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) at Las Vegas Raiders (9-7) It’s hard to make a call on this game because the Raiders have a pair of key players whose status for this game is legitimately questionable, stud tight end Darren Waller and top cornerback Casey Hayward. This game is essentially a…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 18 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (9-7) at Los Angeles Rams (12-4) The Rams are arguably the top team in the league and, even if they aren’t quite, there are a few reasons why I think highly of them. For one, they are probably the most balanced team in the league, ranking 9th…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2021 Week 18 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (6-10) at Arizona Cardinals (11-5) The Cardinals pulled the upset in Dallas last week to keep their chances at winning the division alive, but there is still reason to be concerned about this team long-term. They started the season 7-0, but they benefited significantly from a +8 turnover…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 18 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (8-8) at Atlanta Falcons (7-9) The Falcons don’t have a terrible record at 7-9, but all of their wins have come by one score or fewer against teams with a record of .500 or worse, while their losses have come by an average of 18.78 points per…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 18 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (5-11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-4) This line, favoring the Buccaneers only by 8.5 points at home over the Panthers, suggests that the odds makers aren’t sure if the Buccaneers will play their starters for this whole game, but I think it’s likely that they do, given that…
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