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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at Houston Texans (10-5) A year after finishing a surprising 10-6 and making the AFC Championship, the Jaguars have had a very disappointing year and sit at 5-10 in the cellar of a suddenly competitive AFC South. Their defense has still played at a high level, ranking…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (5-10) at Green Bay Packers (6-8-1) The rule of thumb with the Lions in the Matt Stafford era is to take them against easier opponents and bet against them against harder opponents. They are just 20-41-2 against teams with a winning record since Stafford’s first full season in…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (9-6) at Tennessee Titans (9-6) The Colts got off to a 1-5 start, but have won 8 of their last 9 games, including 4 wins by at least 14 points. Injuries were an issue for them early in the season, but they’ve been one of the better teams…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (7-7-1) at Baltimore Ravens (9-6) The Ravens have gone 5-1 since turning to Lamar Jackson at quarterback, but they’ve actually moved the ball at a slightly worse rate, picking up first downs at a 34.28% rate in Jackson’s 6 starts, as opposed to 36.46% in Joe Flacco’s 9…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (7-8) at Buffalo Bills (5-10) The Dolphins have 7 wins and were in the playoff race late in the season, but they haven’t been nearly as good as their record and have arguably been one of the worst teams in the league. While their 7 wins have come…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-10) The Falcons have had a disappointing season and will be watching the post-season from home, but they’ve played better in recent weeks thanks to the return of dominant every down linebacker Deion Jones. Key defensive players suffering significant injuries early in the…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick
New York Jets (4-11) at New England Patriots (10-5) I bet on the Patriots as 13-point favorites last week at home against the Bills. They nearly covered, holding a 24-6 lead with 2 minutes left in the game before allowing the backdoor cover, but I never really felt comfortable with…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (3-12) at Seattle Seahawks (9-6) Unlike other games this week, I am confident the Seahawks will play their starters the whole way in this game, unless they jump out to a huge lead, in which case covering this spread shouldn’t be a problem. The Seahawks are locked into…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (9-6) at New York Giants (5-10) This is another game with motivational uncertainty. The Cowboys are locked into the #4 seed in the NFC and have rested starts with nothing to play for in the past, but Jason Garrett at least publicly says he’s treating this as a…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (6-9) at New Orleans Saints (13-2) This is one of several games this week that is unpredictable because of uncertainty about motivation. Saints head coach Sean Payton is at least giving lip service to playing his starters, but with the #1 seed in the NFC locked up it’s…
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