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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs: 2018 AFC Championship Pick
New England Patriots (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4) The Patriots won in convincing fashion at home over a strong Chargers team last week, wrapping up an undefeated 9-0 home record, but now they have to go on the road (where they are 3-5) and travel to Kansas City for…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints: 2018 NFC Divisional Round Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) at New Orleans Saints (13-3) When these two teams met in week 11, the Saints destroyed the Eagles in a game with the 2nd highest victory of margin on the season, beating them 48-7. A lot has changed for these Eagles since then though. For one, starting…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots: 2018 AFC Divisional Round Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (13-4) at New England Patriots (11-5) I’ve been high on the Chargers all year and, with the Bears eliminated, the Chargers now rank 1st among remaining playoff teams on the season in first down rate differential at +5.24%. Since week 10, they rank 3rd at +6.04%. Making…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams: 2018 NFC Divisional Round Pick
Dallas Cowboys (11-6) at Los Angeles Rams (13-3) The Cowboys are the weakest of the remaining 8 playoff teams. Their offense has been better since acquiring Amari Cooper during the bye, picking up first downs at a 35.98% rate in 10 games with him, as opposed to 33.81% in 7…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: 2018 AFC Divisional Round Pick
Indianapolis Colts (11-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) The Chiefs finished with the best record in the AFC, while the Colts snuck into the playoffs as the 6th seed on the NFL’s final weekend, but statistically the Colts have been the better of these two teams this season, ranking 5th…
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Continue reading →: 2018 NFL Wild Card Round Pick Results
Wild Card Round Total Against the Spread: 3-0-1 High Confidence Picks: 1-0 Medium Confidence Picks: 2-0 Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 3-0 Low Confidence Picks: 0-0-1 Upset Picks: 2-1 2018 Total Against the Spread: 150-99-11 (59.81%) Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 (61.76%) High Confidence Picks: 20-12-2 (61.76%) Medium Confidence…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears: 2018 NFC Wild Card Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) at Chicago Bears (12-4) The Bears went 12-4 this season and were arguably even better than their record suggests. Those 4 losses came by a combined 14 points, with two of them coming in overtime, and they won the first down rate battle in 3 of those…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: 2018 AFC Wild Card Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) at Baltimore Ravens (10-6) The Ravens beat the Chargers in Los Angeles a few weeks ago, but I’d be wary of extrapolating that result to this game, as that was just one game in a 16-game season. Just because a team wins a matchup in the…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys: 2018 NFC Wild Card Pick
Dallas Cowboys (10-6) at Seattle Seahawks (10-6) The Seahawks got off to a slow start this year, starting 0-2 and sitting just 4-4 at the season’s midpoint, but they once again finished the season strong, something they’ve done pretty much every year in the Russell Wilson era, going 37-18-1 ATS…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2018 AFC Wild Card Pick
Indianapolis Colts (10-6) at Houston Texans (11-5) The Texans finished with the better record of these two teams, winning the division and securing the 3rd seed, while the Colts are seeded 6th, but the Colts were statistically the better team this season. The Colts finished the season 5th in first…
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