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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 17 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (13-2) at Miami Dolphins (10-5) In a league with few top level teams, the Patriots have to stand out atop the league. Not only are they the Patriots and they’ve done this before, but they rank 1st in the NFL in first down rate differential and point…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 17 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (7-8) at Atlanta Falcons (10-5) In a league with so few top level teams, it’s surprising that the Falcons aren’t getting more Super Bowl hype. They rank 3rd in the NFL in point differential and 2nd in first down rate differential and are 10-5 despite a 3-4…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 17 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (9-6) at Detroit Lions (9-6) I always talk about the inconsistency of turnover margins and why using past turnover margins as evidence for predictions of future turnover margins is basically useless. The Packers are a great example of that. Through the first 12 games of the season,…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 17 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (3-12) at Minnesota Vikings (7-8) The Bears are 3-12, but have played a lot better than their record, as they have 4 more first downs than their opponents on 42 fewer plays and rank 11th in first down rate differential. How is that possible? Well, 6 of their…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2016 Week 17 NFL Pick
New York Giants (10-5) at Washington Redskins (8-6-1) I typically don’t like to bet on teams that are expected to rest their starters, but I’m making an exception here because, even though this line suggests the Giants are going to rest their starters and they don’t have anything to play…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 17 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (13-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-9) I almost never bet on teams that are expected to rest their starters for some or most of a game in week 17 because it’s too unpredictable. In this game, the Cowboys are expected to start their starters, but how long they play…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 17 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (9-5-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-13) The Seahawks are typically a very good team in the 2nd half of the regular season under Pete Carroll, going 34-12-1 ATS since Carroll’s first season in 2011 in games 9-16 of the regular season. This year they’ve been 4-3 ATS in…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 2016 Week 17 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (6-8-1) at Los Angeles Rams (4-11) The Cardinals pulled the upset victory in Seattle last week, a shock to many people, considering they were 8 point underdogs. However, it shouldn’t have come as too much of a surprise, given that the Cardinals have played significantly better than their…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2016 Week 17 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (7-8) at New York Jets (4-11) The Jets got blown out by the Patriots in New England 41-3 last week and, if that wasn’t bad enough, they were actually blown out 34-13 the previous week at home for the Dolphins. Believe it or not though, teams actually tend…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 17 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) These two teams met back in week 5 in Carolina, a game that Tampa Bay won in an upset. In this re-match though, I think the Panthers have a decent chance to pull the upset as big underdogs and they should at…
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