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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (10-5) at Green Bay Packers (10-5) The Packers were favored by 5.5 over the Vikings last week on the early line, but now are favored by just 3, a significant line movement considering both 3 and 4 are key numbers. While about 3 in 10 games are decided…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-7) The Falcons delivered the Carolina Panthers their first loss of the season last week, winning 20-13 at home as 7 point underdogs. It was certainly a legitimate win, as they won the rate of moving the chains differential battle 82.14% to 73.08%,…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at Houston Texans (8-7) I ordinarily never do this, but I need to lock this one in now. If the Bengals beat the Broncos tonight, the Texans clinch the AFC South. It might sound weird, but a Cincinnati victory over the Broncos clinches the tiebreaker for the…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (4-10) at Buffalo Bills (6-8) Dallas’ season effectively ended last week with a home loss to the New York Jets, but the Bills’ season effectively ended last week too, with a road loss in Washington to the Redskins. Dallas hasn’t been a very good team all season, as…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) at New Orleans Saints (5-9) This is another game that I don’t have a strong opinion on. Both of these teams are out of the playoffs and have comparable games on deck; the Saints are going to Atlanta and the Jaguars are going to Houston. The Saints…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (4-10) at Detroit Lions (5-9) The Lions were favored by just 6.5 points over the 49ers on the early line last week and now they’re favored by 10. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense as they tend to be overreactions to a single…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (11-3) at Denver Broncos (10-4) The Brock Osweiler era got off to a good start in Denver, but his play has regressed in recent weeks, to the point where the difference in their offense’s efficiency between Osweiler starting and when a hobbled, aged Peyton Manning was starting early…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (7-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-11) The line has finally been released for this one. I was hoping that if Brian Hoyer were ruled out for the 2nd straight week with a concussion that the Texans would be underdogs, as that would have opened up two very powerful trends.…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (10-4) at Arizona Cardinals (12-2) The Cardinals rank first in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, despite having a couple losses. In those 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (6-8) at Seattle Seahawks (9-5) The Seahawks’ home dominance is well documented. Since 2007, they are 55-23 at home (outscoring opponents by an average of 7.88 points per game), as opposed to 31-45 on the road (getting outscored by an average of 1.72 points per game). However,…
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