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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (7-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (12-3) The Cowboys pulled off an upset win over the Buccaneers last week, but that puts them in a bad spot this week, as teams cover at just a 43.6% rate as underdogs of four or more after an upset win as underdogs of…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (8-7) at Washington Commanders (10-5) The Commanders are favored by 4.5 in this game, but that line is too high, particularly when you consider that about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. The Commanders have a slight statistical edge, with a first down…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (7-8) at Los Angeles Rams (9-6) The Cardinals are a decent team statistically on the season, with a slightly above average point differential (+2), yards per play differential (+0.30), and first down rate differential (+0.39%), which are all more predictive than win/loss record, where the Cardinals sit at…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) at New England Patriots (3-12) This game is a tough call. The Chargers are only favored by four points on the road, where they tend to overperform expectations as a result of not having any homefield advantage in Los Angeles (27-34 ATS at home, 37-26 ATS…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (9-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) This is a matchup of two teams that tend to get better as the year goes on after a slow start. Broncos coach Sean Payton consistently did that in his previous job with the New Orleans Saints and has continued that in his…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (8-7) at Chicago Bears (4-11) The Bears started the season 4-2 across an easy schedule, but have since lost nine straight games and are statistically one of the worst teams in the league overall. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (10-5) at Houston Texans (9-6) The Ravens are only one game better than the Texans in the standings, but they have a huge edge in point differential (+103 vs. +20), first down rate differential (+5.45% vs. +0.50%), and yards per play differential (+1.54 vs. +0.16), which are all…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) This line favors the visiting Chiefs by 3 points and typically the Steelers are a good bet as underdogs, going 57-39 ATS since Mike Tomlin’s first season in 2007, including 29-17 ATS as underdogs of three or fewer, as they tend to…
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Continue reading →: 2024 Week 16 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week TB 28 (-3.5) DAL 20 High Confidence Picks SEA 24 (+3) MIN 23 Upset Pick +135 Medium Confidence Picks BAL 27 (-6.5) PIT 17 ATL 23 (-8.5) NYG 10 DET 27 (-6.5) CHI 17 Low Confidence Picks SF 19 (+1.5) MIA 17 Upset Pick +105 LAC…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 Week 16 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) Early in the week, the Chiefs opened as 2.5-point home underdogs in this game, as the oddsmakers seemed to be preparing for a Patrick Mahomes absence due to the ankle injury he suffered in last week’s win over the Browns. I locked…
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