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Continue reading →: 2013 NFL Executive of the Year Pick: Dave Gettleman
Dave Gettleman was hired as the Panthers’ general manager in January of 2013, coming over from his previous job as Senior Pro Personnel Analyst with the New York Giants, where he had worked in the front office since 1999. He deserves a lot of credit for the Panthers’ breakout season…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 AFC Wild Card Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5) This is the game I’m staying away from, simply because of how inconsistent Indianapolis has been this season. They’ve been alternating multiple game stretches where they’ve looked like a 13-3 team and a 6-10 team, with nothing really in between. Last season,…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 NFC Wild Card Pick
New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) At first glance, this line, which favors Philadelphia by 2.5 points, seems off. The Saints had a fantastic regular season on the whole, moving the chains at a 76.98% rate, as opposed to 68.85% for their opponents, a differential of 8.13% that…
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Continue reading →: San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 AFC Wild Card Pick
San Diego Chargers (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) The Chargers kind of tripped backwards into the playoffs. That sounds weird to say about a team that had to win 4 straight games, including one in Denver, just to get to this point, but they could have easily lost to Kansas…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers: 2013 NFC Wild Card Pick
San Francisco 49ers (12-4) at Green Bay Packers (8-7-1) Aaron Rodgers is back for the Packers and that obviously makes a big difference. He started out a little shaky against Chicago, understandable because he missed almost 2 months with injury, throwing 2 early picks, but bounced back to finish 25…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans 2014 Off-Season Report
2013 Recap When the Texans went 12-4 in 2012, they did it on the strength of a 5-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, an easy schedule, and a +12 turnover margin, powered by a 64.10% fumble recovery rate, so it was predictable that the Texans would…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars re-sign DT Sen’Derrick Marks
Jacksonville Jaguars re-sign DT Sen’Derrick Marks Sen’Derrick Marks has had a solid season this year. New Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley seems to have coached up the former 2nd round pick, much like he did with many players when he was the defensive coordinator in Seattle. Marks excelled as a…
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Continue reading →: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick Results
Week 17 Straight Up: 12-4 Against the Spread: 7-9 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 2-0 Medium Confidence: 1-2 Low Confidence: 1-2 No Confidence: 2-5 Upset Picks: 0-3 2013 Straight Up: 173-82-1 (.678) Against the Spread: 146-103-7 (.586) Pick of the Week: 10-6-1 High Confidence: 24-8 Medium Confidence: 32-25…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Wild Card Round
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2013 NFL Prop Bets
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs +250 I didn’t really see any value with over 7.5 (-175) on the Chiefs, but I thought it was a little strange their odds to make the playoffs were this high. The odds makers seen fairly certain they’ll win 7 and probably 8…
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