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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Washington Commanders: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick
New York Giants (7-5-1) at Washington Commanders (7-5-1) These two teams have the same record, but the Commanders have a significantly better point differential. The Commanders’ -3 point differential is worse than you would expect given their record, but the Giants are even worse at -33, as their seven wins…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (9-4) at Cleveland Browns (5-8) Last week, the Ravens played their first full game without injured quarterback Lamar Jackson and I liked their chances to pull the small upset in Pittsburgh without Jackson, as the rest of this team was significantly healthier than earlier in the season, which…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (10-3) The Dolphins are only a couple games behind the Bills in the standings, but they have a +4 point differential and have won five of their six one-score games, while the Bills have a +132 point differential and have won three of their…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) at Minnesota Vikings (10-3) The Vikings are 10-3 and the Colts are 4-8-1, so it might come as a surprise that the Vikings are just 4-point home favorites in this game, but it makes sense. As good as the Vikings’ record is, they have had to go…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Seattle Seahawks (7-6) A week ago on the early line, the 49ers were just 1.5-point favorites in this game in Seattle, but the line has since shifted to 3.5, a significant shift, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by three points exactly, with…
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Continue reading →: 2022 Week 14 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week MIA -3 @ LAC High Confidence Picks PHI -7 @ NYG Medium Confidence Picks JAX +3.5 @ TEN TB +3.5 @ SF NE -1.5 @ ARZ Low Confidence Picks BAL +2 @ PIT MIN +2 @ DET KC -9.5 @ DEN SEA -3.5 vs. CAR BUF…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick
New York Jets (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (9-3) The Bills are favored by 10 points in this game against the Jets, who are at least a middling team, ranking 13th in schedule adjusted efficiency. That might seem high at first glance, but the Bills have had a tendency to blow…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Denver Broncos (3-9) The Broncos have been the most disappointing team in the league this season, going just 3-9 and ranking 31st in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 6.5 points below average, meaning they’ve legitimately been as bad as their record suggests, despite entering the year…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (5-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) This game is a tough call, with both teams being better than their records. The Bengals have four losses, but you can still argue they are one of the best teams in the league, with two of those losses coming in the first…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (1-10-1) at Dallas Cowboys (9-3) This line is high, favoring the Cowboys over the Texans by 17 points. The Texans have been the worst team in the league this season, ranking dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency (6.5 points below average) and dead last in point differential (-99),…
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