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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears 2023 NFL Season Preview
Quarterback Expectations were very low for the Bears last season, starting a rebuild that left them with by far the lowest combined average annual salary of any roster in the league, parting ways with numerous high-paid veterans last off-season, following mediocre finishes in 2019 (8-8), 2020 (8-8), and 2021 (6-11).…
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Continue reading →: 2018 NFL Draft Redo
1. Cleveland Browns – QB Josh Allen (Wyoming) The Browns have their choice of two franchise quarterback prospects with this #1 overall pick, neither of whom is the quarterback they drafted here, Baker Mayfield. Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson is an interesting debate because Jackson has the best individual season…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Super Bowl LVII Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) in Super Bowl LVII The Chiefs have the slight edge in weighted DVOA over the Eagles entering this game (34.4% vs. 28.9%), but the Chiefs were also the healthier team for most of this team, averaging a SIC score that was about…
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Continue reading →: 2022 NFL Conference Championship Picks
San Francisco 49ers (15-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) The 49ers are underdogs in this game by 2.5 points, but they are the significantly better team in terms of weighted DVOA (+43.9% vs. +26.3%). The Eagles had key injury absences down the stretch that led to their slow finish and they…
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Continue reading →: 2022 NFL Divisional Round Picks
Dallas Cowboys (13-5) at San Francisco 49ers (14-4) The Cowboys had a 12-5 regular season and won easily in the first round against the Buccaneers. However, the 49ers are a completely different level of competition, as they lead the league with a 38.6% weighted DVOA. Improved health has been a…
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Continue reading →: 2022 NFL Wild Card Round Picks
New York Giants (9-7-1) at Minnesota Vikings (13-4) The Vikings have the better record of these two teams, but the Giants have the significant edge in weighted DVOA (+0.5% vs. -18.6%), despite the fact that they have had significantly more injury problems this season than the Vikings. The Giants are…
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Continue reading →: 2022 Week 18 NFL Picks
Arizona Cardinals (4-12) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4) This line is high at 14, but the 49ers shouldn’t have too much trouble covering. Of their 12 wins this season, eight have come by more than 14 points and they lead the league in weighted DVOA (+36.0%). The Cardinals, meanwhile, rank…
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Continue reading →: 2022 Week 17 NFL Picks
Arizona Cardinals (4-11) at Atlanta Falcons (5-10) The Falcons have the significant edge in DVOA (-4.0% vs. -22.0%) and are the significantly healthier team in terms of SIC score (86.9 vs. 74.1), but their passing offense has struggled mightily since benching veteran Marcus Mariota for rookie Desmond Ridder, so the…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 17 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-8) The Titans have collapsed in recent weeks, losing five straight after a 7-3 start. That’s not all that surprising though, as the Titans’ wins were never that impressive. None of the Titans’ wins came against teams that currently have a winning record and…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) at Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1) The Chargers have 8-6, but they haven’t played quite as well as that overall this season, as their eight wins have come by a combined 33 points (4.125 points per win), while their six losses have come by a combined 64 points…
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