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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) The Cowboys have been my Pick of the Week the past two weeks and I like them a lot again this week. The conventional thinking is that they have a great offense and a terrible defense and, in fact, they do rank…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 12 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week DAL 25 (+3.5) PHI 20 Upset Pick +145 High Confidence Picks IND 26 (+3.5) KC 24 Upset Pick +155 SEA 26 (-11.5) TEN 10 Medium Confidence Picks LAR 31 (-6.5) TB 22 NE 33 CIN 28 (+7.5) Low Confidence Picks JAX 24 ARZ 23 (+3) LV…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: 2025 Week 12 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Houston Texans (5-5) The Texans are 5-5, but most of their wins have been by multiple scores, while most of their losses have been by one-score, giving them a +57 point differential (9th in the NFL), a +1.43% first down rate differential (9th), and a +0.53…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 11 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week DAL 27 (-3) LV 20 High Confidence Picks BUF 31 (-5.5) TB 23 LAC 23 (-3) JAX 17 Medium Confidence Picks PIT 27 CIN 24 (+5.5) NE 24 NYJ 15 (+13) HOU 16 TEN 13 (+6) BAL 22 CLE 17 (+7.5) Low Confidence Picks GB 23…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2025 Week 11 NFL Pick
New York Jets (2-7) at New England Patriots (8-2) There is a big discrepancy in these two teams’ records and this line, favoring the Patriots by 13, reflects that, but the Patriots have not been as good as their record suggests, while the Jets have not been as bad. In…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 10 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week IND 31 (-6.5) ATL 17 High Confidence Picks DET 23 WAS 20 (+8.5) BUF 35 (-8.5) MIA 20 Medium Confidence Picks LAC 21 (-2.5) PIT 17 CHI 26 NYG 24 (+4.5) DEN 26 (-8.5) LV 13 GB 21 (PK) PHI 17 NYJ 16 (+2.5) CLE 13…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2025 Week 10 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) at Denver Broncos (7-2) The Raiders lost last week when they went for two at the end of overtime against the Jaguars, instead of tying it up with an extra point. It was the right decision, despite the outcome, as it is much better for team…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 9 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week IND 31 (-3) PIT 24 High Confidence Picks LAC 27 (-9.5) TEN 13 LAR 31 (-14) NO 13 Medium Confidence Picks DET 28 MIN 23 (+8.5) LV 17 (+3) JAX 16 Upset Pick +130 Low Confidence Picks GB 24 CAR 13 (+13.5) NYG 24 (+2.5) SF…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2025 Week 9 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (2-5) at Miami Dolphins (2-6) Both of these teams only have two wins, but they have very different rest of the season outlooks. While the Dolphins have been one of the worst teams in the league in terms of yards per play differential (29th at -0.70) and first…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 8 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week BUF 27 CAR 24 (+7.5) High Confidence Picks CIN 23 NYJ 21 (+6.5) Medium Confidence Picks LAC 23 (-3) MIN 17 IND 34 (-14.5) TEN 13 NE 20 CLE 16 (+7) DEN 24 DAL 23 (+3.5) KC 30 WAS 21 (+12.5) Low Confidence Picks HOU 20…
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