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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2025 Week 15 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (4-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) The Buccaneers are 7-6, but they rank 27th in yards per play differential (-0.64) and 23rd in first down rate differential (-1.88%), which are much more predictive than win/loss record. Their record is largely the result of going 5-0 in games decided…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 14 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week LAR 34 (-8) ARZ 17 High Confidence Picks GB 31 (-6.5) CHI 20 BUF 34 CIN 31 (+6.5) TB 23 NO 20 (+8.5) Medium Confidence Picks IND 23 (-1.5) JAX 20 LAC 20 (+2.5) PHI 17 Upset Pick +120 DET 28 DAL 27 (+3.5) Low Confidence…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys: 2025 Week 14 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) at Detroit Lions (7-5) The Cowboys started the season 3-5-1, but they have won their last three games since their bye week in impressive fashion, blowing out the Raiders and then pulling upsets over the Eagles and Chiefs. The Cowboys have had an explosive offense all season,…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 13 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week DAL 26 (+3.5) KC 24 Upset Pick +140 High Confidence Picks BAL 30 CIN 27 (+7) PHI 23 CHI 20 (+7) GB 24 (+3) DET 20 Upset Pick +125 LAC 17 LV 10 (+10) NE 23 NYG 20 (+7.5) LAR 27 (-9.5) CAR 13 Medium Confidence…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at New England Patriots: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick
New York Giants (2-10) at New England Patriots (10-2) The Giants have a 2-10 record and the Patriots have a 10-2 record, but the Giants have five losses by one score, despite facing arguably the toughest schedule in the league, while the Patriots have six wins by one score, despite…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) This line, favoring the Chargers by 10 points, is too high. The Chargers’ offense has been significantly worse this season in games in which their top offensive lineman Joe Alt doesn’t play the whole game, scoring 19.9 points per game, as…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (10-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-6) The Rams are currently the slight Super Bowl favorite, but they actually may still be a little underrated, as I think they are clearly the best team in the league. They rank 3rd in yards per play differential (+1.05), 1st in first…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) at Detroit Lions (7-4) The Lions managed to come back and beat the Giants in overtime last week, but now they are in a very tough spot, as teams are just 7-25 ATS all-time on Thursdays after playing in an overtime game the previous week. That…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) This is probably the most confusing line of the week. In other cases when my calculated line is very different from the actual line, I can understand why, but in this case I genuinely don’t understand it. The Eagles have just one win…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5) The Bengals are getting Joe Burrow back from an extended absence in this game and there is a good chance he is the healthier of these two quarterbacks, as Lamar Jackson has played at far less than his usual level since returning from…
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