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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Championship Pick
New England Patriots (16-3) at Denver Broncos (15-3) The Broncos won a dramatic overtime game over the Bills last week, but got devastating news after the game when they found out that Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle on one of the last plays of the game and…
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Continue reading →: 2025 NFL Divisional Round Picks
High Confidence Picks LAR 34 (-4) CHI 24 Medium Confidence Picks BUF 23 (+1.5) DEN 20 Upset Pick +105 Low Confidence Picks SEA 20 SF 14 (+7) NE 21 (-3) HOU 16
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Divisional Round Pick
Buffalo Bills (13-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3) These two teams met in the first round of the post-season last year and the Bills covered fairly easily as 8-point favorites, winning 31-7. This time around, the Broncos are favored by 1.5. What has changed since then? Well for one, this game…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: 2025 NFC Divisional Round Pick
Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at Chicago Bears (12-6) These two teams finished with similar records, with the Rams only winning one more game than the Bears, but statistically there is a big gap between these two teams. While the Bears mostly played close games, winning by more than one score…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 NFC Divisional Round Pick
San Francisco 49ers (13-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3) This is the third time these two divisional opponents have met this season. The 49ers opened the season with a 17-13 win in Seattle week 1, in which the 49ers won the first down rate battle by 0.73 and the yards per…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at New England Patriots: 2025 AFC Divisional Round Pick
Houston Texans (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-3) The Patriots enter this game with significant edges in first down rate differential (+3.36% vs. +1.93%) and yards per play differential (+1.10 vs. +0.48) compared to the Texans, which are both much more predictive than win/loss records. The Texans have faced a…
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Continue reading →: 2025 NFL Wild Card Round Picks
High Confidence Picks LAR 34 (-10) CAR 17 PIT 19 (+3.5) HOU 17 Upset Pick +150 Medium Confidence Picks SF 26 (+6) PHI 24 Upset Pick +210 Low Confidence Picks NE 27 LAC 24 (+3.5) No Confidence Picks JAX 24 BUF 23 (+1.5) GB 24 CHI 23 (+2)
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) The 49ers were statistically the better of these two teams in the regular season. While the Eagles had the edge in yards per play differential, ranking 10th at +0.29 while the 49ers ranked 18th at -0.11, the 49ers had a bigger edge…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots: 2025 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at New England Patriots (14-3) The big knock against the Patriots is their weak schedule and it’s a fair point, as they have faced one of the weakest schedules in NFL history, including just three games against teams with a winning record. However, the Patriots dominated…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2025 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) The Jaguars started the season 4-1, but they had a league leading +10 turnover margin in those games, which is very unpredictive on a week-to-week basis, so their hot start looked like a fluke. Sure enough, the Jaguars saw their turnover luck stop…
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