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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers: 2025 Week 8 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (3-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) Typically the rule of thumb in non-divisional games on Thursdays is to pick the home team, as long as they are favored and as long as both teams are on short rest. With the exception of significantly superior teams, it is very…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 7 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week LAR 24 (-3) JAX 16 High Confidence Picks DEN 24 (-7) NYG 13 CHI 24 NO 23 (+5) GB 23 ARZ 20 (+7) Medium Confidence Picks IND 23 (+1.5) LAC 20 Upset Pick +105 DET 31 TB 27 (+6.5) SEA 23 (-3) HOU 17 DAL 34…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2025 Week 7 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) The Steelers are 4-1, but they have been pretty underwhelming so far this season. They are negative in both first down rate differential (-1.39%) and yards per play differential (-0.08), despite a below average schedule. Their turnover margin of +7 is 3rd best…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 6 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week CLE 17 (+6.5) PIT 16 Upset Pick +225 High Confidence Picks SEA 24 (PK) JAX 20 Medium Confidence Picks LAR 24 BAL 20 (+7.5) WAS 27 (-4.5) CHI 20 NE 24 NO 23 (+3.5) IND 27 ARZ 21 (+8.5) Low Confidence Picks DEN 27 (-7) NYJ…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets: 2025 Week 6 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (3-2) vs. New York Jets (0-5) in London Normally the Broncos would be in a good spot in this game, as favorites tend to cover in international games, especially big favorites, with favorites of a touchdown or more going 9-2 ATS. However, the Broncos could be a little…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2025 Week 6 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4) The Eagles are a tough team to be confident in either way. They are defending Super Bowl Champions and they are 4-1 despite one of the toughest schedules in the league, but they haven’t looked particularly good in any of their games.…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 5 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week LAR 30 (-7) SF 17 High Confidence Picks IND 27 (-6.5) LV 17 Medium Confidence Picks DET 35 (-10) CIN 20 NO 20 (-1.5) NYG 16 NYJ 24 (+2.5) DAL 23 Upset Pick +115 BUF 31 (-7.5) NE 20 Low Confidence Picks LAC 27 (-2.5) WAS…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2025 Week 5 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1) The Rams are 3-1, but they could be 4-0 if not for special teams miscues against the Eagles. Even with that loss taken into account, I would argue the Rams are right behind the undefeated Eagles and Bills as the third…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 4 NFL Picks
145-93 ATS (60.9%) on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) since 2023, 57.4% ATS all-time Pick of the Week MIN 24 (-2.5) PIT 17 High Confidence Picks BUF 34 (-14.5) NO 13 Medium Confidence Picks LV 27 (-1) CHI 22 DEN 21 CIN 17 (+7.5) LAR 31 IND 30 (+3.5)…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 Week 4 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) in Dublin The Steelers are 2-1, but they have a negative point differential at -5, despite recovering all eight fumbles that have occurred in their three games. Recovering fumbles is a statistically random event and recovering eight in a row has a probability…
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