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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5) In addition to adjusting playoff teams’ rate of moving the chains differentials for strength of schedule, another thing I did differently this week was breaking out schedule adjusted differential into a team’s last 4 games and into a team’s last 8 weeks instead…
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Continue reading →: 2014 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pick: JJ Watt
In my Most Valuable Player article, I laid out why JJ Watt should not win MVP over Aaron Rodgers, as the Packers would undoubtedly be a worse team if they switched Rodgers for Watt and the Texans would undoubtedly be better if they switched Watt for Rodgers. However, Watt not…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) I’m glad the Ravens made the playoffs. If San Diego had been able to beat the Chiefs, it would have eliminated the Ravens, regardless of what the Ravens did in their game against the Browns, and they would have missed the playoffs despite…
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Continue reading →: 2014 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Pick: Odell Beckham Jr.
From 2005-2013, 31 receivers went in the 1st round. They averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season as rookie. The most productive 1st round rookie wide receiver over that stretch was AJ Green, who caught 65 passes for 1057 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2011, after going…
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Continue reading →: 2014 NFL Most Valuable Player Award Pick: Aaron Rodgers
The consensus 3 candidates for MVP seem to be Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, and JJ Watt. I’ll explain why I feel Rodgers has the edge on both of them. I’ll start with the two quarterbacks, Rodgers and Romo. Comparing the two, Romo had generally more efficient numbers. He completed 69.9%…
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Continue reading →: 2014 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Pick: Rob Gronkowski
Comeback Player of the Year is the award that I feel has the vaguest definition because it depends on your definition of comeback. Guys like Aaron Rodgers, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Harrison Smith, and Von Miller missed significant time last season (7 games, 11 games, 10 games, 8 games, and…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) The Cowboys have been pretty inconsistent this season. They come into the playoffs red hot, ranking 3rd among playoff teams (only behind Seattle and Carolina) in rate of moving the chains differential adjusted for schedule. This makes sense as they won their final…
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Continue reading →: 2014 NFL All-Pro Picks
QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) RB LeVeon Bell (Pittsburgh) WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh), Jordy Nelson (Green Bay), Odell Beckham (NY Giants) TE Rob Gronkowski (New England) OT Andrew Whitworth (Cincinnati), Jason Peters (Philadelphia) G Marshal Yanda (Baltimore), Josh Sitton (Green Bay) C Nick Mangold (NY Jets) IDL JJ Watt (Houston),…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) The Panthers went into Atlanta last week and won 34-3, winning the NFC South and securing a home playoff game with a record of 7-8-1. After the game, Tony Dungy remarked that he believed the Panthers could go into Seattle and knock off…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Wild Card Round
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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