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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (7-8) at Baltimore Ravens (9-6) The Browns’ offense ranks 27th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 67.55% rate, and they’ve gotten progressively worse as the season has gone on. They’re moving the chains at a pathetic 63.44% rate over the past 10 games since Alex Mack…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) at Houston Texans (8-7) This game involves a significant line movement as the Texans were 7.5 point favorites according to the early line last week, while they are now 10 point favorites. I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, as significant line movements…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
New York Jets (3-12) at Miami Dolphins (8-7) The Jets said it themselves (or at least safety Calvin Pryor did). Last week’s game at home against the Patriots was their Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Jets, they can’t even win pretend Super Bowls, but they did only lose by 1,…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (5-10) at Minnesota Vikings (6-9) The Bears made a curious move last week, benching big money quarterback Jay Cutler for journeyman backup Jimmy Clausen. Cutler wasn’t necessarily living up to his contract, but the offense wasn’t the issue with the team, as they were moving the chains at…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (10-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-13) The Colts were embarrassed last week in a 42-7 loss in Dallas. I had Colts +3 as my Pick of the Week and I messed up big time. I failed to take into account the Colts’ relative road struggles, their struggles with quality…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-13) The Saints were eliminated from the playoffs last week with their 5th straight home loss, a loss to Atlanta which dropped them to 6-9 on the season. However, they’ve played well enough this season to suggest that if they played an…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) at New York Giants (6-9) This line has flipped from Philadelphia being favored by 3 to New York being favored by 3 over the course of the past week, a huge line movement. I love fading huge line movements whenever it makes sense and it does here.…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 17
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick Results
Last week Against the Spread: 7-8-1 Straight Up: 8-8 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence: 0-0 Medium Confidence: 4-1 Low Confidence: 2-3 No Confidence: 1-3-1 Upset Picks: 0-1 On the season Against the Spread: 132-104-4 (.559) Straight Up: 151-88-1 (.632) Pick of the Week: 8-7-1 High Confidence: 8-10 Medium…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Pro-Bowl Selections
QB: Tom Brady (New England), Drew Brees (New Orleans), Andrew Luck (Indianapolis), Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay), Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh), Tony Romo (Dallas) RB: LeVeon Bell (Pittsburgh), Jamaal Charles (Kansas City), Justin Forsett (Baltimore), Marshawn Lynch (Seattle), Eddie Lacy (Green Bay), DeMarco Murray (Dallas) FB: Anthony Sherman (Kansas City), Ryan Hewitt…
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