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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5) The Falcons are 5-9, but they’ve been impressive on offense this season, ranking 7th in schedule adjusted efficiency, with their defense being their big problem, ranking 29th in schedule adjusted efficiency. Offensive performance tends to be significantly more consistent week-to-week than defensive performance,…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8) Both of these teams got off to slow starts to the season, with the Raiders starting 2-7 and the Steelers starting 2-6, but both teams have had more success in the win/loss column in recent weeks, pushing both teams up to a…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (11-3) at Chicago Bears (3-11) The Bills haven’t been quite as dominant this season as they were last season, when all of their wins came by at least 12 points, leading to a +194 point differential that led the league. However, they have played better in one-score games,…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-9) The Lions started the season 1-6, but have since won six of the past seven games to get back to .500, putting themselves very much in the mix for a playoff spot. In some ways, their improvement was predictable. Four of their first…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (1-12-1) at Tennessee Titans (7-7) The Titans started the season 7-3, but have since fallen back to earth with four straight losses, leaving them in a battle for a playoff spot, even in the weakest division in the AFC. That’s not all that surprising though, as the Titans’…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
New York Giants (8-5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (11-3) Both of these teams have impressive records, but both teams have needed to have a lot of success in close games to get to these records, which tends not to be sustainable long-term, as victories by larger margins are more predictive of…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (10-4) at New England Patriots (7-7) This is one of the tougher calls of the week from an against the spread perspective. My calculated line is Cincinnati -3, which is right where this line is, and, given that games are decided by three significantly more often than any…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) at Dallas Cowboys (10-4) The Eagles have lost quarterback and likely MVP favorite Jalen Hurts for this game with injury, but all hope is not lost in this critical divisional battle in Dallas, for several reasons. For one, the Eagles are far more than just Jalen Hurts.…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8) at New York Jets (7-7) The Jaguars pulled off a huge comeback upset win over the Cowboys in overtime last week, but that loss might have come with a price, as now the Jaguars have to play on a short week after that overtime game, which has…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (5-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8) A week ago on the early line, the Panthers were 3-point home underdogs, but now they are 3-point favorites. Normally I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements like that and this is not an exception. This line moved because the Panthers…
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