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Continue reading →: 2022 Week 18 NFL Picks
Arizona Cardinals (4-12) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4) This line is high at 14, but the 49ers shouldn’t have too much trouble covering. Of their 12 wins this season, eight have come by more than 14 points and they lead the league in weighted DVOA (+36.0%). The Cardinals, meanwhile, rank…
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Continue reading →: 2022 Week 17 NFL Picks
Arizona Cardinals (4-11) at Atlanta Falcons (5-10) The Falcons have the significant edge in DVOA (-4.0% vs. -22.0%) and are the significantly healthier team in terms of SIC score (86.9 vs. 74.1), but their passing offense has struggled mightily since benching veteran Marcus Mariota for rookie Desmond Ridder, so the…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 17 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-8) The Titans have collapsed in recent weeks, losing five straight after a 7-3 start. That’s not all that surprising though, as the Titans’ wins were never that impressive. None of the Titans’ wins came against teams that currently have a winning record and…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) at Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1) The Chargers have 8-6, but they haven’t played quite as well as that overall this season, as their eight wins have come by a combined 33 points (4.125 points per win), while their six losses have come by a combined 64 points…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (4-10) at Los Angeles Rams (4-10) A week ago on the early line, the Rams were favored by 1 point at home in this matchup against the Denver Broncos, but this line has since switched to favor the Broncos by a field goal, a significant swing, given that…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) at Arizona Cardinals (4-10) The Cardinals were at the top of my overrated teams list coming into the season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-6) The Packers are 3.5-point underdogs this week, which might seem low, but 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, with 1 in 6 games being decided by exactly a field goal, so 3.5 is a higher line that…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (7-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) The Seahawks are 10-point underdogs in this game, which might seem like a lot considering they have a decent 7-7 record, but their offense has been their strength all season and they haven’t played as well in recent weeks, with quarterback Geno…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (5-9) at Cleveland Browns (6-8) The Saints have been among the most injury plagued teams in the league this season. They seemed to be getting healthier, with feature back Alvin Kamara (2 games missed), starting wide receivers Jarvis Landry (5 games missed) and Chris Olave (1 game…
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Continue reading →: Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick
Washington Commanders (7-6-1) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4) The 49ers began this season just 3-4, but they had a lot of injury problems early in the season and, once they got healthy and acquired feature back Christian McCaffrey in a trade, the 49ers looked like one of the best teams…
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