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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: Week 15 NFL Pick
New York Jets (6-7) at Tennessee Titans (4-9) The Titans are 4-9, which isn’t very good at all, but if you can believe it, they’re even worse than their record. Of their 9 losses, 5 have come by 21 or more and only one of their 4 wins have come…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins: Week 15 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Miami Dolphins (5-8) I’ve mentioned the six and six trend here several times. Teams are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more if they finish with 6 wins or fewer. The Dolphins might be a candidate for that here as 7.5 point favorites…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills: Week 15 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-8) The Seahawks have the biggest home/road disparity over the last few years. They are 23-43 ATS on the road and 46-20 ATS at home since 2005. This year, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home, including 3-0 SU as home dogs, but…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: Week 15 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (4-9) One of the most powerful trends is known as the six and six trend. This says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse struggle to cover as favorites of 6 or more, going 23-64 ATS since 2002. The Lions are currently 4-9 and…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers: Week 15 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (4-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-8) I picked the Chargers to win at home against the Ravens and Bengals respectively in week 12 and 13 because, among other reasons, they always start playing really well at this point in the season, even when their season has been lost.…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys: Week 15 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6) After the Steelers’ loss last week, I was expecting them to be dogs here, especially after the Cowboys big win as dogs last week. There was no early line last week because Ben Roethlisberger’s status was still in doubt so I didn’t know…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: Week 15 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) at Oakland Raiders (3-10) I picked the Chiefs as 6.5 point dogs last week in Cleveland because they were in such a good spot, but I made sure not to make it a huge play because I wasn’t sure how they’d respond once they had a…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots: Week 15 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) at New England Patriots (10-3) Normally, I like betting against big line movements because they tend to be overreactions based off 1 week. Last week, this line was -3 and now it’s -5, which is a pretty significant line movement. However, that’s reasonable in this case.…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#1)
Last week: 1 (+0) Record: 10-3 Net points per drive: 1.17 (1st) DVOA: 41.8% (1st) Weighted DVOA: 45.8% (1st) Tom Brady improved to 26-11 in his career against teams with a better record than his with his win over the Texans last week. That’s unreal. The Patriots are +198 on…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#2)
Last week: 2 (+0) Record: 9-3-1 Net points per drive: 0.95 (2nd) DVOA: 34.8% (4th) Weighted DVOA: 33.9% (4th) Nothing has changed. I still feel this week’s Patriots/49ers game will be a Super Bowl preview and I think the winner will be the Super Bowl favorite. Right now, the Patriots…
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