It’s 2006 again. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning appear to be on a crash course. Both quarterbacked arguably the best teams in the league (the Broncos and Patriots ranked 2nd and 3rd in the NFL in DVOA, but I don’t trust #1 Seattle on the road). Both are MVP candidates. Peyton Manning is currently viewed as the favorite, but I think that’s both undeserved and beneficial to the Patriots. I went into the former in Denver’s write up and I’ll get into the latter here.
The Patriots thrive when doubted and that’s exactly what’s happening with the Broncos taking the #1 seed. They’ve failed to finish in the last 2 seasons as the #1 seed, but this year, I think things will be different. Tom Brady has an impressive record as an underdog in his career, going 24-18 and he’ll almost definitely be an underdog in Denver when the two meet. He also has an incredibly impressive record against teams with a record better than his, going 26-11 in those games in his career.
Add in his 9-4 career record against Peyton Manning and I think the Patriots are the AFC favorite right now in a two team race. Winning the Super Bowl once they get there will be harder, as they are 0-2 against NFC playoff teams this year (AFC division winners are 0-6 as a whole against NFC playoff teams this year), but I like the way the Patriots match up against the NFC teams they could have to play. I think they’re better than Atlanta and Green Bay and would win rematches with Seattle and San Francisco as the former struggles away from home and the latter is playing with their best defensive player at less than 100%. Tom Brady also possesses a 10-3 record in same season revenge games.
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