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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 7 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week LAR 24 (-3) JAX 16 High Confidence Picks DEN 24 (-7) NYG 13 CHI 24 NO 23 (+5) GB 23 ARZ 20 (+7) Medium Confidence Picks IND 23 (+1.5) LAC 20 Upset Pick +105 DET 31 TB 27 (+6.5) SEA 23 (-3) HOU 17 DAL 34…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2025 Week 7 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) The Steelers are 4-1, but they have been pretty underwhelming so far this season. They are negative in both first down rate differential (-1.39%) and yards per play differential (-0.08), despite a below average schedule. Their turnover margin of +7 is 3rd best…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 6 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week CLE 17 (+6.5) PIT 16 Upset Pick +225 High Confidence Picks SEA 24 (PK) JAX 20 Medium Confidence Picks LAR 24 BAL 20 (+7.5) WAS 27 (-4.5) CHI 20 NE 24 NO 23 (+3.5) IND 27 ARZ 21 (+8.5) Low Confidence Picks DEN 27 (-7) NYJ…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets: 2025 Week 6 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (3-2) vs. New York Jets (0-5) in London Normally the Broncos would be in a good spot in this game, as favorites tend to cover in international games, especially big favorites, with favorites of a touchdown or more going 9-2 ATS. However, the Broncos could be a little…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2025 Week 6 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4) The Eagles are a tough team to be confident in either way. They are defending Super Bowl Champions and they are 4-1 despite one of the toughest schedules in the league, but they haven’t looked particularly good in any of their games.…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 5 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week LAR 30 (-7) SF 17 High Confidence Picks IND 27 (-6.5) LV 17 Medium Confidence Picks DET 35 (-10) CIN 20 NO 20 (-1.5) NYG 16 NYJ 24 (+2.5) DAL 23 Upset Pick +115 BUF 31 (-7.5) NE 20 Low Confidence Picks LAC 27 (-2.5) WAS…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2025 Week 5 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1) The Rams are 3-1, but they could be 4-0 if not for special teams miscues against the Eagles. Even with that loss taken into account, I would argue the Rams are right behind the undefeated Eagles and Bills as the third…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 4 NFL Picks
145-93 ATS (60.9%) on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) since 2023, 57.4% ATS all-time Pick of the Week MIN 24 (-2.5) PIT 17 High Confidence Picks BUF 34 (-14.5) NO 13 Medium Confidence Picks LV 27 (-1) CHI 22 DEN 21 CIN 17 (+7.5) LAR 31 IND 30 (+3.5)…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 Week 4 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) in Dublin The Steelers are 2-1, but they have a negative point differential at -5, despite recovering all eight fumbles that have occurred in their three games. Recovering fumbles is a statistically random event and recovering eight in a row has a probability…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2025 Week 4 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-1) Going into the season, I thought the Cardinals were the sleeper team in the NFC West, but the Seahawks have been the better team through three weeks, with a first down rate differential of +5.01% and a yards per play differential of +0.97,…
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