Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2024 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (7-6) at San Francisco 49ers (6-7)

Both of these teams had impressive results last week. The Rams pulled the upset over the Bills, who are one of the best teams in the league, winning by a final score of 44-42. The 49ers faced a much easier opponent in the Chicago Bears, but blew them out convincingly, winning 38-13, while outgaining them by 4.29 yards per play and converting first downs at a 8.56% higher rate. Of those two results, the Rams’ looks much less fluky. Last week’s victory was the Rams’ sixth in eight games, including victories over the Rams and Seahawks, in addition to that win over the Bills. Meanwhile the 49ers’ win snapped a three game losing streak, including two straight losses by 25+ points, one of which came just one week prior against the same Bills team that the Rams defeated last week.

Injuries are the primary reason for these two teams generally heading in the opposite direction. Last week was only the Rams’ second game all season with their expected starting five offensive linemen all healthy at the same time, while their recent stretch of strong play largely coincides with the return of their two stud wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to the lineup in their week 8 victory over the Vikings. Overall, the Rams are one of the healthiest teams in the league right now, as none of the players who are expected to miss this game with injury being key players, with cornerback Cobie Durant, a decent starter, being their most notable absence. That kind of health simply was not the case for this team for most of the season.

For the 49ers, the situation is very different. Among others, the 49ers are most notably missing running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams, and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, and potentially defensive end Nick Bosa, all of whom were among the best players in the league at their respective positions during the 49ers’ run to the Super Bowl last week. Bosa’s return would be big and it seems like the 49ers will get back linebacker Dre Greenlaw for the first time this season, but Bosa could be on the wrong side of questionable having gotten in just one limited practice this week after missing the past three games and it remains to be seen how much of an impact Greenlaw will make in his first game back from a torn achilles.

The 49ers have been the better team statistically this season, with a first down rate differential of +3.07% and a yards per play differential of +1.27, as opposed to 1.15% and -0.34 respectively for the Rams, but in their current injury situations, these two teams are about even in my roster rankings. Despite that, the 49ers are favored by a full field goal at home in this game, so we’re getting some line value with the Rams. It’s not enough for the Rams to be worth betting, but if Nick Bosa ends up missing his fourth straight game and the line doesn’t move, I would strongly consider a bet on the Rams.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Los Angeles Rams 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +3

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2024 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (9-3) at Detroit Lions (11-1)

The Lions have a big statistical edge in this matchup. Both teams have yards per play differentials, with the Packers at +0.89 and the Lions at +0.87, but the Lions have a huge edge in first down rate differential (+5.92% vs. +1.11%), which is the more predictive of the two metrics. That would suggest the Lions are undervalued as 3.5-point home favorites in this game, as my calculated line based off those statistics would be Detroit -7.5. However, the Packers are in the better injury situation of these two teams. 

While the Packers will still be without top cornerback Jaire Alexander (6th absence of the season) and starting wide receiver Romeo Doubs (3rd absence of the season), the Lions are still without stud left tackle Taylor Decker (3rd absence of the season), who will be joined on the sidelines by stud interior defender DJ Reader, starting linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez, and rotational defensive linemen Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike, all of whom were active last week. The Lions do get top cornerback Carlton Davis back from a 1-game absence, but overall they are still in worse shape injury wise than their opponents.

My calculated line with the injuries factored in is still Detroit -6.5, so we’re getting some line value with Detroit -3.5, but not as much as you might think. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, with 1 in 6 being decided by exactly 3, more than are decided by 4-6 combined. That means in terms of real probability, 3.5 is closer to 6.5 than 2.5. The Lions should still be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, but there isn’t enough here for the Lions to be worth betting unless this line moves down to 3.

Update: This line has moved to 3 in some places, so I am going to put a small bet on the Lions.

Detroit Lions 30 Green Bay Packers 24

Pick against the spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: Medium

2024 Week 13 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

DET 30 (-10) CHI 13

High Confidence Picks

WAS 27 (-5.5) TEN 17

JAX 24 (+3.5) HOU 23 Upset Pick +160

Medium Confidence Picks

DAL 17 NYG 16 (+4)

MIN 23 ARZ 21 (+3.5)

Low Confidence Picks

GB 24 (-3) MIA 19

BAL 24 (-2.5) PHI 20

NE 20 (+2.5) IND 19 Upset Pick +115

ATL 21 (+1.5) LAC 20 Upset Pick +105

SEA 24 (+1.5) NYJ 23 Upset Pick +110

DEN 20 (-5.5) CLE 13

No Confidence Picks

KC 24 LV 12 (+13.5)

TB 27 (-6.5) CAR 20

CIN 23 (-2.5) PIT 20

BUF 24 SF 19 (+6)

LAR 26 (-2.5) NO 23

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2024 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (10-1)

The Bears are healthier than they’ve been in recent weeks, particularly on the offensive line, where tackles Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright and guard Teven Jenkins have missed time recently, and on defense, where edge defenders Montez Sweat and Darrell Taylor and cornerback Kyler Gordon have missed time recently. They’re a significantly better team as a result of their improved health and almost pulled the upset over the Vikings last week, losing in overtime.

Unfortunately, that overtime loss puts them in a near impossible spot on a short week, as teams have a horrific track record of covering the spread on a short week after an overtime game, going just 3-24 ATS all-time. The Bears would have been in a tough spot anyway, even if they didn’t play overtime last week, as big divisional home favorites tend to cover on a short week, going 21-13 ATS as favorites of 7+ on Thursday as long as both teams are on short rest. 

This line is -10 and, as big as that line is, it arguably should be bigger, as the Lions are probably the best team in the league and have a massive edge in first down rate differential (+5.80% vs. -2.03%) and yards per play differential (+0.89 vs. -1.14), as well as a 9-point edge in my roster rankings, even with the Bears’ improved health and the Lions missing left tackle Taylor Decker and cornerback Carlton Davis this week. Between the good spot and the line value, the Lions are a great play this week. I don’t normally like to make my Pick of the Week on Thursday, but I don’t see another game that I like this much, so the Lions are my Pick of the Week this week.

Detroit Lions 30 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Detroit -10

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)

This game is a tough call from an against the spread perspective, with the Chiefs favored by 13.5 points. On one hand, the Chiefs are 10-1, but haven’t blown out many teams, with just two wins by more than 7 points, one win by more than 10 points, and no wins that would cover this spread. Because of that, a good rule of thumb is to bet them when they’re underdogs or small-to-medium favorites and go against them as big favorites. They are 5-2 ATS this season as long as they aren’t favored by more than six points, but just 0-4 ATS when favorites of more than six. The Chiefs also could be in a look ahead spot here with a much tougher game against the Chargers on deck, as favorites of 7+ cover the spread at just a 44.3% rate as when their next opponent has a better winning percentage than their current opponent by a margin of more than 40%.

On the other hand, the Raiders in their current state are arguably the worst team in the league and this game against them in Kansas City is arguably the Chiefs’ easiest game of the season. The Chiefs have also largely underachieved this season and have the talent to make this game a blowout if they bring their best effort, which they could even in a bad spot, given Patrick Mahomes’ comments about being frustrated with his team’s lack of blowouts, and given that this is a nationally televised game. Even with the Chargers on deck, the Chiefs may want to make a statement in front of the whole country by blowing out a terrible Raiders team. I am still taking the Raiders for pick ‘em purposes because I think the argument for them covering is stronger than the argument for the Chiefs covering, but I don’t have any confidence in this pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Las Vegas Raiders 12

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +13.5

Confidence: None

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers: 2024 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (5-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)

The Packers are in a good spot here as a non-divisional home favorite on a Thursday. It’s very tough for teams to travel on a short week and face an unfamiliar non-divisional opponent, unless they are significantly better than that opponent, and, as a result, non-divisional home favorites are 50-33 ATS on Thursdays as long as both teams are on short rest. This is also the type of situation that Tua Tagovailoa, Mike McDaniel, and the Dolphins have struggled in recently. Tagovailoa is 0-7 in his career when the temperature is less than 40, 3-10 under Mike McDaniel (5-8 ATS) against teams with winning percentages over 50%, and 3-8 in primetime games under Mike McDaniel (3-8 ATS). The Packers, meanwhile, are 23-8 (19-12 ATS) in week 12 or later since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach in 2020, including 14-4 (12-6 ATS) at home.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting any line value with the Packers. The Packers have the edge in first down rate differential (+1.00% vs. +0.02%) and yards per play differential (+0.84 vs. -0.09), but the Packers aren’t as good as you would expect in those metrics, given their 8-3 record, and the Dolphins have been playing a lot better since getting Tagovailoa back from injury. In fact, my roster rankings give the Dolphins a 2-point edge, factoring in the Packers missing cornerback Jaire Alexander and wide receiver Romeo Doubs, so it’s hard to justify betting on the Packers as 3-point favorites, even in a great spot. I would still take the Packers for pick ‘em purposes, but I don’t think they’re bettable.

Green Bay Packers 24 Miami Dolphins 19

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3

Confidence: Low

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2024 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (2-9) at Dallas Cowboys (4-7)

The Cowboys pulled the huge upset in Washington last weekend, but I’m not sure they can bring that kind of effort two weeks in a row. Teams tend to fall back to earth after big upsets like that, covering the spread at just a 42.7% rate the week after an upset as underdogs or 10 points or more. The Giants, meanwhile, were embarrassed by the Buccaneers last week and will probably bring a better effort than a Cowboys team that arguably won their Super Bowl last week. 

The Cowboys have also been a much worse home team than road team this season, going 4-2 on the road, including wins over likely playoff qualifiers in the Commanders and Steelers, but losing every home game by an average of 23.6 points. On top of that, the Giants might be the better of these two teams, possessing the significant edge in first down rate differential (-0.83% vs. -3.46%) and only slightly trailing in yards per play differential (-1.05 vs. -0.96). Meanwhile, my roster rankings give the Giants a 1-point edge, given all of the Cowboys injuries, most notably the absence of starting quarterback Dak Prescott and talented guard Zach Martin. Between the bad spot the Cowboys are in, their struggles at home, and the fact that the Giants might be the better team, it’s hard to justify the Cowboys being favored by four points in this game, so I like the Giants enough for a small bet this week.

Dallas Cowboys 17 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4

Confidence: Medium

2024 Week 12 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

PHI 23 (-2.5) LAR 17

High Confidence Picks

GB 23 SF 20 (+6.5)

Medium Confidence Picks

PIT 19 CLE 17 (+3.5)

MIN 17 CHI 16 (+3.5)

HOU 24 (-7.5) TEN 13

Low Confidence Picks

MIA 25 NE 20 (+7.5)

DEN 17 (-5.5) LV 10

BAL 24 (-3) LAC 20

TB 24 NYG 19 (+6.5)

No Confidence Picks

ARZ 28 (PK) SEA 27

KC 27 CAR 17 (+11)

DET 27 (-7.5) IND 19

WAS 24 (-10.5) DAL 13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2024 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)

The Steelers are 8-2, while the Browns are 2-8, so it might be surprising that the Steelers are only favored by 3.5 points in this game, even on the road. Most people seem to be surprised by the line, which is why about 87% of people are on the Steelers this week. This line seems to be a trap though, for several reasons. For one, 3.5 is a common trap line and, as a result, +3.5 covers the spread at a 52.0% rate, higher than any other single number. That’s because the average bettor doesn’t realize it’s actually a pretty high line. 

About 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, with 1 in 6 being decided by exactly three, while 4 and 5 are much less common outcomes, with only about 1 in 10 games being decided by either four or five points. In fact, in terms of real probability, the line 3.5 is actually closer to 6 than 3. If this line was 5.5, I suspect a lot more people would be on the Browns, but the odds makers made it 3.5 because they want a lot of bets on the Steelers, which normally means the smart play is to go the other way and specifically in this case I believe it is.

The Steelers’ record is impressive, but they’re actually negative in both yards per play differential (-0.30) and first down rate differential (-0.64%), which are much more predictive than win/loss record. Their offense in particular has struggled, averaging just 4.96 yards per play and a 27.92% first down rate, both well below the league averages of 5.42 and 30.77%. The biggest reason for the Steelers’ success this season is a +11 turnover margin, second best in the NFL, but turnover margins tend to have very little week-to-week correlation. 

The Steelers also historically have had a lot more success as underdogs or small favorites in the Mike Tomlin era than have had as bigger favorites, especially on the road. While they are 82-52 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since Tomlin’s first season in 2007, they are just 22-36 ATS as road favorites of a field goal or more over that stretch. That makes sense, as the Steelers traditionally are a conservative, defense led team that thrives off being overlooked, but that also struggles to win big when they’re expected to.

The Steelers especially struggle as big road favorites after a win, as their record as road favorites of a field goal or more falls to 10-25 ATS when the Steelers are coming off of a win, which they are after a close upset victory over the Ravens last week. That close victory also opens up another trend that works against the Steelers, as teams are just 25-46 ATS as road favorites after a win by 3 points or fewer as underdogs. After such a big win last week, it could be hard for the Steelers to bring their best effort for a 2-8 opponent, especially on a short week. Meanwhile, the Browns could be viewing this as their Super Bowl, similarly to how they upset the Ravens a few weeks back in a similar spot.

We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Browns, who have plenty of issues, hence their 2-8 record, but, their offense has been noticeably better since Jameis Winston became their quarterback and, given the Steelers’ issues on offense, my calculated line is Pittsburgh -3, which, as I mentioned, is more line value than it seems. That line value combined with the trends that go against the Steelers make the Browns bettable and, at the very least, they’re a good contrarian pick in pick ‘em leagues. I wouldn’t go crazy with this bet, but the Browns look like the right side for a variety of reasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5

Confidence: Medium