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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: 2024 AFC Divisional Round Pick
Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at Buffalo Bills (14-4) The Bills finished the regular season one game better than the Ravens, one and a half games if you ignore the Bills’ meaningless week 18 loss to the Patriots, but the Ravens faced a much tougher schedule, with an opponents’ winning percentage of…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 AFC Divisional Round Pick
Houston Texans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) The Chiefs finished the regular season tied for the best record in the league at 15-2, but they didn’t blow out many opponents, with just four wins by more than eight points, which is relevant, with this line at 8.5. Only one…
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Continue reading →: Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions: 2024 NFC Divisional Round Pick
Washington Commanders (13-5) at Detroit Lions (15-2) The Detroit Lions finished the regular season 15-2, while ranking 2nd in first down rate differential at 4.70% and 6th in yards per play differential at +0.48, while the Commanders finished 12-5 with a first down rate differential of +2.08% (7th in the…
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Continue reading →: 2024 NFL Wild Card Round Picks
High Confidence Picks TB 31 (-3) WAS 24 Medium Confidence Picks BAL 26 (-9.5) PIT 13 BUF 25 DEN 20 (+9) Low Confidence Picks PHI 27 (-4.5) GB 20 LAC 24 (-2.5) HOU 19 No Confidence Picks MIN 24 LAR 23 (+2.5)
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) The Eagles won three more games than the Packers this season, but they were pretty similar in terms of yards per play differential (+0.97 for the Packers, +0.87 for the Eagles) and first down rate differential (+2.91% for the Eagles, +1.57% for…
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Continue reading →: Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2024 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Washington Commanders (12-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) The Commanders finished the regular season two games better than the Buccaneers and are underdogs of three points in this game. The public is all over the underdog as a result of that, with about 80% of the action on the Commanders,…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams: 2024 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Los Angeles Rams (10-7) When these two teams met back in week 8, it seemed unlikely that they would meet again in the post-season. The Vikings looked playoff bound at 5-1, but the Rams sat at just 2-4 going into that game. However, that game proved…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills: 2024 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Denver Broncos (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (13-4) The Bills finished the regular season at 13-4, 13-3 if we don’t include a meaningless week 18 game in which they rested their starters, but, even if we ignore week 18, the Bills had just a first down rate differential of just +1.50%…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans: 2024 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at Houston Texans (10-7) The Texans are arguably the worst team in the playoffs. They are negative in both first down rate differential (-0.80%) and yards per play differential (-0.04), ranking 4th worst and 2nd worst among playoff qualifiers in those metrics. They’re also arguably the…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2024 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (12-5) The Ravens finished the regular season first in both yards per play differential and first down rate differential by a wide margin, with their yards per play differential of +1.66 being significantly better than the second best team at +0.99 and their first…
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