2020 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos

1. Cincinnati Bengals – QB Joe Burrow (LSU)

This draft could go down as one of the best quarterback drafts of all time, but the Bengals wouldn’t think twice about making this pick again, as Joe Burrow has single-handedly made this team relevant again after being selected #1 overall by a 2-win team, taking them to the Super Bowl in his second season and then back to the AFC Championship in his third. He’s missed the playoffs entirely in his other three seasons, twice because of injury and most recently because of a terrible defense, but Burrow is still one of the better quarterbacks in the league and should keep the Bengals in contention for years to come, as long as he stays healthy. In total, Burrow has started 69 regular season games, going 38-30-1, completing 68.6% of his passes for an average of 7.46 YPA, 140 touchdowns, and 46 interceptions in those games and additionally winning five post-season games, as many as the Bengals had won in their previous 39 seasons before Burrow. 

2. Washington Redskins – QB Justin Herbert (Oregon)

While Burrow was an easy decision, this is where it gets tricky. The Redskins (now Commanders) would obviously take a quarterback here if they had the chance to do this all over again, as they originally passed on addressing the position in favor of selecting defensive end Chase Young, because they had 2019 1st round pick Dwayne Haskins, who would prove to be a bust. The Commanders would eventually find their quarterback in Jayden Daniels in the 2024 Draft, but they have the opportunity to get the game’s most important position right four years earlier in this scenario.

Jalen Hurts is obviously a strong candidate here, fresh off winning Super Bowl MVP, but he didn’t start until late in his rookie season, then was decent, but unspectacular in his second season as a starter, before breaking out in his third season, while Justin Herbert has been consistent throughout his career, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and then going on to complete 66.5% of his passes for an average of 7.21 YPA, 137 touchdowns, and 45 interceptions in 79 starts across his five seasons in the league, while going 41-38, despite consistent issues with the team around him.

Even if you think Hurts is the better of the two quarterbacks as of this writing, there is still a strong case to be made that, when you take the entirety of the last five seasons into account, Herbert has overall been the better of the two. He obviously hasn’t had the team success that Hurts has, but he also hasn’t had anywhere near the same team around him. In addition to benefiting from a great team around him, Hurts also benefited from not having to play right away in Philadelphia, two luxuries he wouldn’t be afforded if Washington made him the 2nd overall pick. I’ve gone back and forth on this one many times, but ultimately Herbert made more sense for the situation Washington was in five years ago.

3. Detroit Lions – WR Justin Jefferson (LSU)

The Lions could also take Hurts here, but they had Matt Stafford for another year and pretty seamlessly transitioned from the Stafford era to the Jared Goff era, so I think they would address another position here, even with great quarterback options still left on the board. This draft had a lot of great players, but I think you’d have a hard time arguing that Justin Jefferson isn’t the best non-quarterback from this draft. Arguably the league’s best receiver, Jefferson had a ridiculous 88/1400/7 slash line even as a rookie and has averaged an even more ridiculous 109/1641/9 slash line per 17 games throughout his career. He’d step in immediately as a #1 receiver for a Lions team that was led in receiving by a 30-year-old Marvin Jones in 2020.

4. New York Giants – QB Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma)

The Giants are in a similar situation to the Commanders, as they passed on a quarterback in this draft because they took one the previous year, but would not do so in hindsight because that quarterback ended up being a bust. Daniel Jones wasn’t quite as big of a bust as Haskins, who lasted just two seasons in Washington, but if anything his selection was worse because he was just good enough for the Giants to double down on him with a big contract, rather than cutting their losses and starting over at the position, leading to them still needing a quarterback to this day. 

In hindsight, they would have to pull the trigger on Hurts if he remained on the board, even if there was some risk, bringing Hurts into a way worse situation than the one he went to in Philadelphia. Since breaking out in 2022, Hurts has completed 66.7% of his passes for an average of 7.70 YPA, 63 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions, while rushing for 1,995 yards and another 42 touchdowns on 472 carries (4.23 YPA). He’s had a lot of help from his supporting cast, but there is no denying his 37-10 record with six post-season victories and a Super Bowl MVP over those three seasons.

5. Miami Dolphins – QB Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)

The Dolphins stick with their original pick here. The majority of teams would probably take Jordan Love over Tua Tagovailoa in this scenario, but for the purposes of this re-draft, I tend to stick with the original pick if it’s close. Tagovailoa has not shown himself to be an elite quarterback, nor has he proven he can consistently stay healthy, but that didn’t stop the Dolphins from giving him a 4-year, 212.4 million dollar extension last off-season, which makes him the 5th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary. 

After struggling for most of his first two seasons in the league, Tagovailoa has definitely shown flashes of being an elite quarterback, completing 69.0% of his passes for an average of 8.12 YPA, 73 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions over the past three seasons, while going 25-16, but his durability, consistently, and inability to win and perform well in big games have been a significant problem. The Dolphins giving him that massive contract has more to do with them still believing in his long-term potential than anything he has done yet.

6. Los Angeles Chargers – QB Jordan Love (Utah State)

The Chargers miss out on Justin Herbert in this re-draft, but they’re still picking high enough to get Jordan Love, who is the last of the five quarterbacks to be taken in this scenario. Love definitely benefited from spending three years on the bench behind Aaron Rodgers and would not have been ready to start right away the way Justin Herbert did, but he has arguably developed into a better quarterback in the long run. Over his past two seasons as a starter, he has completed 63.7% of his passes for an average of 7.52 YPA, 57 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions, while going 18-14 in the regular season and taking the Packers to back-to-back playoff appearances, including a post-season win over the Cowboys in 2023.

7. Carolina Panthers – WR Ceedee Lamb (Oklahoma)

Wide receiver wasn’t a pressing need for the Panthers in 2020, as both DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson topped 1000 yards that season, but Anderson fell to 519 yards in 2021 and 206 yards in 2022, while Moore was traded after the 2022 season, so Ceedee Lamb, probably the best available player remaining, still makes sense here. Lamb isn’t quite as good as Jefferson, but he’s topped 1,100 yards receiving in four straight seasons, while averaging 104/1330/8 per 17 games in his career, including a league leading 1,749 receiving yards in 2023.

8. Arizona Cardinals – OT Tristan Wirfs (Iowa)

The Cardinals had a solid left tackle in DJ Humphries at the time of this draft, but Wirfs would have been a massive upgrade at right tackle, while giving them insurance for the injury plagued Humphries, and ultimately moving over to the left side after Humphries was let go following the 2023 season, after missing 11 games in the previous two seasons. A right tackle for the first three seasons of his career, Wirfs seamlessly made the transition to left tackle with Tampa Bay in 2023, while finishing with PFF grades in the 80s in all five seasons in the league, across 79 total starts, since being selected 13th overall by the Buccaneers. He’s one of the best players in the league at his position and is likely the best available player remaining on the board.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Jaylon Johnson (Utah)

The Jaguars took a cornerback here originally in CJ Henderson, who wound up being a bust, getting traded to the Panthers for a third round pick midway through his second season in the league and not developing there either. Jaylon Johnson, on the other hand, has developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league. It took him a few years to develop, as he finished with PFF grades in the 60s in each of his first three seasons in the league, but that jumped to 90.1 in 2023 and remained high at 76.2 in 2024. Originally a second round pick by the Bears, Johnson was extended on a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal after being franchise tagged at the conclusion of his rookie deal last off-season and, still only going into his age 26 season, he still has a very bright future. Even with the relatively slow start to his career, he’s arguably the best available player at this point in this re-draft.

10. Cleveland Browns – OT Andrew Thomas (Georgia)

The Browns had the right idea drafting a left tackle in Jedrick Wills here, but he never developed into a consistent starter, so the Browns take another offensive tackle in this re-draft. Thomas slips a little bit from where he was originally selected, 4th overall by the Giants, but he has still been one of the better left tackles in the league when healthy, finishing with PFF grades of 78.9, 89.1, 76.1, and 75.4 over the past four seasons respectively. Injuries have become his biggest issue, as he has missed 18 games over the past two seasons, after missing just 5 total games in his first three seasons in the league combined, but, still only going into his age 26 season, it would not at all be a surprise if he puts his injuries behind him and continues being a high level left tackle.

11. New York Jets – S Xavier McKinney (Alabama)

The Jets still had Jamal Adams as of the 2020 draft, but he was ultimately traded to the Seahawks for two first round picks later in the off-season and went on to decline mightily in Seattle. The Jets prepared for the loss of Adams by using a third round pick in this draft on Ashtyn Davis, but knowing that Adams would be gone later in the off-season and would struggle long-term even if he was kept, the Jets could shoot higher at the position in a re-draft. McKinney was a bit inconsistent early in his career and missed significant time with injury in both 2020 (10 games missed) and 2022 (8 games missed), but he has developed into one of the best safeties in the league, finishing with PFFs grades of 87.5 and 84.8 over the past two seasons, while making all 34 starts. Still only going into his age 26 season, he should remain one of the best safeties in the league for several more years.

12. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Tee Higgins (Clemson)

The Raiders’ original pick here, Henry Riggs, wound up getting cut for off-the-field reasons midway through his second season in the league, so the Raiders take a different wide receiver in this re-draft. Higgins has had some durability issues over the past two seasons, missing five games in each of the past two seasons, but he has averaged a 80/1116/8 slash line per 17 games in his career, with a yards per route run average of 1.95 and a yards per target average of 8.97. He wouldn’t have the same quarterback situation with the Raiders as he had in Cincinnati, but he would still give their passing game a big boost. A free agent this off-season after being franchise tagged last off-season, Higgins is expected to command around 30 million annually, still only going into his age 26 season.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Antoine Winfield (Minnesota)

The Buccaneers miss out on Tristan Wirfs, their original pick here, but their second round pick Antoine Winfield has developed into one of the better safeties in the league when healthy, so the Buccaneers use this pick to ensure they can keep him. Winfield disappointed in an injury plagued 2024 season, after signing a 4-year, 84.1 million dollar extension last year, but he previously had PFF grades of 86.1, 77.8, and 91.5 in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively and, only going into his age 27 season, he has obvious bounce back potential in 2025 and beyond.

14. San Francisco 49ers – WR Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona State)

Brandon Aiyuk was originally taken with the 49ers’ other first round pick, 25th overall, but they would need to take him earlier this time around. The 49ers wouldn’t mind, as their original pick here, Javon Kinlaw, was a bust who was let go last off-season as a free agent after his 5th year option was declined. Aiyuk’s long-term outlook took a hit this season when he suffered a torn ACL early in the 2024 season, but he has averaged a 72/1061/6 slash line per 17 games, 2.04 yards per route run, and 9.65 yards per target in his career, including a 75/1342/7 slash line with 3.01 yards per route run and 12.78 yards per target in 2023, which led to the 49ers giving him a 4-year, 120 million dollar deal last off-season after franchise tagging him. Only going into his age 27 season, he still has a bright future if he can bounce back from his injury.

15. Denver Broncos – CB AJ Terrell (Clemson)

Cornerback was a big problem for the Broncos heading into the 2020 Draft. They used a third round pick on Michael Ojemudia and he immediately played 852 snaps in 16 games as a rookie (11 starts), but he finished with a 48.7 PFF grade as a rookie and only played 87 snaps the rest of his career after that. AJ Terrell would be a much better option. He has made 78 starts in five seasons in the league, receiving PFF grades of 60.8, 82.6, 63.9, 74.6, and 69.4 respectively in those five seasons. He originally went 16th to the Falcons, who locked him up with a 4-year, 81 million dollar extension after his 4th season in the league. In this scenario, the Broncos steal him away one pick earlier.

16. Atlanta Falcons – DE Alex Highsmith (Charlotte)

The Falcons missed out on AJ Terrell, who they would have loved to have kept, but they had a desperate need for edge rush help as well. In 2020, the Falcons had the 10th fewest sacks in the league with 29, with no one surpassing 4.5 sacks and no edge rusher surpassing 3 sacks. Alex Highsmith is at his best against the run, but he has also developed into a high level pass rusher opposite TJ Watt in Pittsburgh, with 35.5 sacks, 40 hits, and a 11.4% pressure rate in 77 career games, including 27.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate in 45 games over the past three seasons, while receiving overall PFF grades of 78.0, 90.3, and 89.5 over those three seasons.

17. Dallas Cowboys – CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama)

The Cowboys missed out on Ceedee Lamb, their original pick here, but they also made a good pick in the second round, when they took Trevon Diggs. Diggs has his issues in coverage, allowing 8.81 yards per target in his career, and he’s missed 21 games with injury over the past two seasons, but, despite the missed time, he still has 20 interceptions since entering the league, second most over that time period, including a league leading 11 in 2021. The Cowboys kept him with a 5-year, 97 million dollar extension after his third season in the league and, while his recent injuries may make them question that decision, I still think they would take him here in a re-draft.

18. Miami Dolphins – WR Jerry Jeudy (Alabama)

The Dolphins would eventually add Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to support Tua Tagovailoa, but back in 2020 they were led in receiving by Devante Parker (63/793/4). Jerry Jeudy didn’t have his first 1000 yard season until his fifth season in the league in 2024, but he averaged a solid 1.83 yards per route run in his first four seasons in the league, despite poor quarterback play, before breaking out with a 90/1229/4 slash line (6th in the NFL in receiving yards) in 2024. He could have been more productive sooner with the Dolphins.

19. Las Vegas Raiders – DT Nnamdi Madubuike (Texas A&M)

The Raiders had a big need for defensive tackle help going into this 2020 draft and this has remained a need for years. Nnamdi Madubuike took a couple years to develop and has never been a great run defender, but he has 25 sacks, 33 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 51 games as an interior pass rusher over the past three seasons with the Ravens, making him one of the best interior pass rushers in the league. After a 13-sack 2023 season, the Ravens franchise tagged Madubuike and extended him on a 4-year, 98 million dollar deal last off-season.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Jonathan Greenard (Florida)

The Jaguars whiffed on this pick originally, taking edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson, who had just 5 sacks in 57 games for the Jaguars. Greenard took a few years to develop, playing just 963 snaps total in his first three seasons in the league, in large part due to injury (16 games missed), but he always flashed potential even in limited action and he has broken out over the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 78.2 and 80.8 and a total of 24.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate in 32 games. After his breakout 2023 campaign in Houston, he signed a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal with the Vikings last off-season, which proved to be a great value in his first season with his new team.

21. Philadelphia Eagles – RB Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin)

The Eagles were led in rushing by Miles Sanders in 2020. Sanders wasn’t a bad lead back, but Jonathan Taylor would be an obvious upgrade and would have given the Eagles’ offense a Saquon Barkley type option much earlier. Taylor has missed 17 games with injury in five seasons in the league, but he has still rushed for 6,013 yards and 51 touchdowns in his career, which rank second and third respectively among running backs over that time span.

22. Minnesota Vikings – WR Michael Pittman (USC)

Michael Pittman took a year to develop, but he has averaged a 95/1038/4 slash line with 1.77 yards per route run and 7.39 yards per target in his past four seasons, including a pair of 1000+ yard seasons in 2021 and 2023. He’d obviously be a downgrade for the Vikings from Justin Jefferson, their original pick here, but he is the best remaining wide receiver for a team that had an obvious need at the position in 2020.

23. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Derrick Brown (Auburn)

Derrick Brown was a tough player to slot. He was originally the 7th overall pick and had a pair of elite seasons in 2022 and 2023, excelling against the run, adding 3 sacks, 22 hits, and a 7.9% pressure rate as an interior pass rusher, and finishing with PFF grades of 84.4 and 90.1 respectively. However, he took two years to develop into that player, with PFF grades of 61.0 and 64.4 in his first two seasons in the league, and then he missed almost all of 2024 with injury. At his best, Brown is an elite run defender who can also push the pocket as a pass rusher and he’s only going into his age 27 season, so he has a good chance to be a great value at this point in the draft, but I couldn’t find a good spot for him earlier. The Chargers needed help at the defensive tackle position in 2020 and beyond, so Brown would have been a welcome addition.

24. New Orleans Saints – G Mike Onwenu (Michigan)

The Saints used this pick originally on guard Cesar Ruiz, who never really developed into a player worth this selection. Ironically, his Michigan teammate Mike Onwenu was only a 6th round pick by the Patriots originally, but he made all 16 starts as a rookie and has started 73 games in five seasons in the league, while receiving PFF grades of 84.3, 87.0, 79.3, 71.5, and 65.2. He would be an upgrade for the Saints at what was a position of need back in 2020.

25. San Francisco 49ers – DE Chase Young (Ohio State)

Chase Young was a tough player to slot. The 2nd overall pick, Young won Defensive Rookie of the Year and looked like a future Defensive Player of the Year, but tore his ACL midway through his second season in the league, missed most of his third season, and overall hasn’t lived up to his potential since getting hurt. However, he hasn’t been bad overall, generally playing the run at a high level, finishing above 70 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league, and totaling 22 sacks, 35 hits, and a 11.4% pressure rate in 60 career games. The 49ers have been searching for a good edge defender opposite Nick Bosa for years, at one point trading for Young, but only keeping him for a half-season, before losing him to the Saints in free agency. Even with his injury issues, he makes sense for the 49ers at this juncture because of his upside.

26. Green Bay Packers – CB L’Jarius Sneed (Louisiana Tech)

Jaire Alexander had a great season for the Packers at cornerback in 2020, but the rest of their cornerback room was underwhelming and Alexander has been increasingly injury prone in recent years. L’Jarius Sneed, meanwhile, developed into a solid starting cornerback with the Chiefs, despite being a 4th round pick, starting 48 games from 2021-2023 while receiving PFF grades of 64.1, 76.1, and 71.1. That led to the cap strapped Chiefs franchise tagging him last off-season and trading him for a third round pick to the Titans, who extended him on a 4-year, 76.4 million dollar deal. Sneed missed most of 2024 with injury, but has obvious bounce back potential in his age 28 season in 2025 and would still have been a welcome addition for the Packers in 2020.

27. Seattle Seahawks – MLB Patrick Queen (LSU)

The Seahawks’ original pick here, linebacker Jordyn Brooks, was a bust who never exceeded a 60 grade on PFF in four seasons in Seattle, before leaving as a free agent to the Dolphins. Many felt the Seahawks should have taken Patrick Queen instead, rather than letting him go one pick later to the Ravens, and, in hindsight, that would have been a better move. Queen took a couple years to develop, but finished the 2022 season with a 70.0 PFF grade on 1,024 snaps and finished the 2023 season with a 73.1 PFF grade on 1,120 snaps, leading to him signing a 3-year, 41 million dollar deal with the Steelers last off-season. Queen regressed in his first season in Pittsburgh, but still would make sense for the Seahawks at 27 in a re-draft.

28. Baltimore Ravens – G Kevin Dotson (Louisiana)

The Ravens miss out on Patrick Queen by one pick in this scenario, but they get a much needed help at guard in Kevin Dotson, as they struggled to replace Marshal Yanda, a stud guard who retired after the 2019 season. Dotson, originally a 4th round pick, began his career as a solid starter with the Steelers, with PFF grades of 66.2, 64.2, and 65.4 with 30 total starts in his first three seasons, before breaking out with PFF grades of 85.2 and 81.3 across 30 total starts over the past two seasons after being traded to the Rams, who kept him as a free agent on a 3-year, 48 million dollar deal last off-season.

29. Tennessee Titans – G Robert Hunt (Louisiana)

The Titans completely whiffed on their original pick here Isaiah Wilson, who they were hoping could replace Jack Conklin, a free agent departure during the 2020 off-season. Instead, Wilson never played a snap for the team for disciplinary reasons, making him an all-time bust. Robert Hunt has played both right tackle and guard in his career and could immediately step in as the replacement for Conklin, before potentially moving inside to guard when Rodger Saffold left after the 2021 season. In five years in the league, Hunt has made 71 starts, while receiving PFF grades in the 60s and 70s in all five seasons in the league, after being selected in the second round by the Dolphins. The only reason the Dolphins didn’t keep him as a free agent last off-season was cap concerns, as he left for Carolina on a 5-year, 100 million dollar deal.

30. Miami Dolphins – S Grant Delpit (LSU)

The Dolphins had needs all over the field going into the 2020 NFL Draft and Grant Delpit could have been a useful player for them. He missed his entire rookie season with injury after being selected by the Browns in the second round of this draft, but he returned to develop into a solid starter, with PFF grades of 63.3, 63.6, 70.0, and 65.2 over the past four seasons respectively, while only missing another seven total games with injury. The Browns kept him as a free agent last off-season on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal.

31. Minnesota Vikings – MLB Zach Baun (Wisconsin)

Zach Baun was another tough player to slot, spending the first four years of his career as a reserve (664 total defensive snaps) in New Orleans, before breaking out as an All-Pro in his fifth season in the league in Philadelphia, finishing the 2024 season with a 90.1 PFF grade on 938 snaps. The Vikings, who needed another linebacker inside next to Eric Kendricks in 2020, take a chance on him and hope he can become at least a solid starter earlier with more opportunity.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Darnell Mooney (Tulane)

The talent in this draft is running out fast, but Darnell Mooney is a solid starting receiver, and Chiefs could have used another receiver in 2020 and 2021 opposite Tyreek Hill, who they eventually traded after the 2021 season and never adequately replaced. Mooney would obviously be a downgrade from Hill, but could be a useful player for a team that has had consistent problems in the receiving corps in recent years. Originally drafted by the Chicago Bears, with whom his production was kept down by inconsistent quarterback play (60/735/3 slash line per 17 games), Mooney signed with the Falcons on a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal last off-season and had a 64/992/5 slash line in 16 games on a much better passing offense. It’s not hard to imagine Mooney exceeding that in Kansas City’s offense after Hill was traded.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles: Super Bowl LIX Pick

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Kansas CIty Chiefs (17-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) in Super Bowl LIX

The Chiefs are small favorites for the second straight game, favored by 1.5 points in the Super Bowl against the Eagles after being favored by 1.5 points against the Bills in the AFC Championship. Against the Bills, I bet on the Chiefs, citing the Chiefs’ history when they’re not big favorites, and their history in close games. Overall, the Chiefs are 51-19 in games decided by seven points or fewer when Patrick Mahomes starts, including 11-0 this season, and they are 20-6-1 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three when Mahomes starts, including 8-0 ATS in the post-season. Because of that, the Chiefs are close to an automatic bet in those spots, unless there is a good reason not to pick them.

However, this game against the Eagles is different and there are a couple good reasons to bet against the Chiefs this time around. For one, the Eagles have been just as good in close games as the Chiefs in recent years, going 20-5 over the past three seasons in games decided by seven points or fewer when Jalen Hurts starts and finishes the game. On top of that, while the Bills and Chiefs were pretty evenly matched, the Eagles look like a significantly better team, so this game might not even end up being that close.

The Eagles had a significant edge in both first down rate differential (+2.78% vs. +1.82%) and yards per play differential (+0.91 vs. -0.06), this season, excluding both teams’ meaningless week 18 game. The Eagles also are in a much better injury situation now than they have been for much of the season. The Chiefs have recently gotten back key players in starting wide receiver Marquise Brown (15 games missed), starting edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and starting cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position. However, that pales in comparison to the Eagles.

All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games missed), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all missed significant time this season and have since returned, while talented edge defender Brandon Graham (9 games missed) seems likely to return. Having Hurts healthy is probably the most important one, as the Eagles have won 12 straight games that he has started and finished.

In the current injury situations these two teams are in, the Eagles have a 5-point edge in my roster rankings. The Chiefs obviously have the edge at quarterback, but aside from that, there isn’t a single other position group where the Chiefs have the edge. The Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. 

In a lot of ways, this reminds me of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl matchup against the Buccaneers a few years ago, when the Chiefs got to the Super Bowl on the strength of a lot of close victories (9-0 in one-score games that season), before running into a much better team and getting blown out. Even if this game does end up being relatively close, the Chiefs wouldn’t necessarily have the edge in a close game either, given Jalen Hurts recent track record in close games. I wouldn’t make a big wager on the Eagles because of the Chiefs’ history as underdogs or small favorites in the playoffs, but I think we’re getting too much line value with the Eagles to pass on betting on them.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Kansas City Chiefs 22 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Championship Pick

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Washington Commanders (14-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)

The Eagles have been the slightly better of these two teams statistically, winning two more games and finishing the season with a first down rate differential of +2.64% and a yards per play differential of +0.77, as opposed to +0.98% and +0.15 respectively for the Commanders. However, the Eagles’ big edge is their injury situation. While the Commanders will be without their top offensive lineman Sam Cosmi in this game, after being relatively healthy throughout the regular season, the Eagles are much healthier than they have been for much of the season. Most notably, key players like All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all have returned after missing significant time with injury this season. 

In the injury situations these two teams are currently in, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Commanders in my roster rankings, with an edge in every position group, except quarterback. The Jayden Daniels over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. There isn’t quite enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting as 6-point home favorites, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Commanders 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 AFC Championship Pick

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Buffalo Bills (15-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (16-2)

With the Lions losing in their first playoff game last week, the Chiefs have the best record in the league at 16-2 and one of those two losses was a meaningless week 18 game when they didn’t play their starters with the one seed already locked up. However, the Chiefs won a lot of close games, with just six wins by more than seven points and a 10-0 record in games decided by seven points or less. The Bills have a worse record than the Chiefs, but still have much better numbers in terms of yards per play differential (+0.42 vs. -0.08) and comparable numbers in terms of first down rate differential (1.21% vs. 1.29%), when you exclude both teams’ meaningless week 18 games.

Typically first down rate differential and yards per play differential are significantly more predictive than win/loss record and, along with that, a teams’ record in one-score games is not predictive, but the Chiefs are now 50-19 in one-score games when Patrick Mahomes starts, which is a pretty big sample size. For comparison, the Bills are just 22-20 in one-score games with Josh Allen since his breakout season in 2020, as good as Allen has been over that time period. 

The gap between these two teams in terms of the aforementioned metrics might suggest this is not necessarily going to be a close game, but my roster rankings have these two teams about equal. The Chiefs are only missing one week 1 starter, wide receiver Rashee Rice, who has been out since week 4, and they have replaced him well by trading for DeAndre Hopkins after week 7 and getting back Marquise Brown after he missed the first 14 games of the season with injury. 

The Chiefs have also recently gotten back other key players in running back Isaiah Pacheco (10 games missed), edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position. As a result, they seem to have gotten better as the year has gone on, with four of their six wins by more than seven points this season coming in their last four meaningful games. The Bills, on the other hand, were one of the least injury plagued teams in the league this season, but now enter this AFC Championship game missing top safety Taylor Rapp and potentially top cornerback Christian Benford, who has yet to clear the concussion protocol.

With this likely to be a close game, the Chiefs seem like the right side. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given their tendency to win close games, the Chiefs have been great this season against the spread when not big favorites, going 7-2 ATS as underdogs or favorites of six points or fewer (excluding week 18), as opposed to 0-7-1 when favored by more than six points. Going back to Mahomes’ first season as a starter in 2018, the Chiefs are 19-6-1 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three in games started by Mahomes, including a 18-8 straight up record, making them close to an automatic bet in that situation, especially in the playoffs, when they are 7-0 ATS. My calculated line of Chiefs -2.5 doesn’t give us much value with the Chiefs at -1.5, but as long as this game is expected to be close, I like the Chiefs chances of pulling out the victory. This is only a small bet for now, but I would probably increase it if Benford winds up not playing.

Kansas City Chiefs 28 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -1.5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Divisional Round Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (11-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)

Both of these teams came into the playoffs much healthier than they were at stretches this season. The Rams almost beat the Lions in Detroit week 1, but lost top wide receiver Puka Nacua in that game and were just 2-4 when he returned to the lineup in week 8. From week 8 on, the Rams won 8 of 10 games, excluding a meaningless week 18 game in which their starters didn’t play. During that 8 wins in 10 games stretch, the Rams had a 4-game stretch from week 13 to week 16 in which they had their expected starting five offensive linemen together for the first time all season, a stretch in which they won all 4 games, including an upset victory over the Bills.

Even excluding the Rams’ meaningless week 18 game, they still finished the regular season with middling numbers in terms of yards per play differential (-0.27) and first down rate differential (+0.71%), but from week 8 to week 17, those numbers were -0.01 and 1.78% respectively and in their four games with a healthy offensive line those numbers were +0.07 and +3.29%. Now essentially fully healthy in the post-season, the Rams dismantled the Vikings in round 1, winning the yards per play battle by +1.94 and the first down rate battle by +3.52%.

The Eagles also have underwhelming season-long numbers in terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing the regular season at +0.87 and 2.91% respectively, excluding their meaningless week 18 game, but that is still significantly better than the Rams’ season-long numbers and the Eagles have had several key players miss significant time with injury who have since returned, far more than even the Rams. That list includes All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) and talented edge defender Bryce Huff (5 games).

In their current injury situations, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Rams in my roster rankings and look like a significantly better team. The Eagles are favored by 6 points at home in this game, so there isn’t quite enough here for them to be bettable, especially since the Rams are one of the better road teams in the league due to their lack of homefield advantage in Los Angeles (+1.9 average point differential at home, +1.1 on the road since moving in 2016), but the Eagles still look like the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: 2024 AFC Divisional Round Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at Buffalo Bills (14-4)

The Bills finished the regular season one game better than the Ravens, one and a half games if you ignore the Bills’ meaningless week 18 loss to the Patriots, but the Ravens faced a much tougher schedule, with an opponents’ winning percentage of .529, second best among playoff qualifiers, as opposed to .467 for the Bills, third worst among playoff qualifiers. Both teams blew out inferior opponents in the first round of the post-season, but in the regular season, the Ravens had much more success against playoff qualifiers than the Bills did, as the Bills played just five playoff qualifiers, tied for fewest among playoff qualifiers, and went just 2-3 with a -15 point differential in those games, while the Ravens played ten playoff qualifiers, most among playoff qualifiers, and went 7-3 with +112 point differential, which was best among playoff qualifiers by a wide margin.

Despite the much tougher schedule, the Ravens finished the regular season with significantly better numbers in yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing first in both categories by a wide margin at +1.66 and +6.36% respectively (second place in both metrics was +0.99 and +4.70% respectively). The Bills, on the other hand, finished the regular season with a yards per play differential of +0.55 and a first down rate differential of 1.50%, even if we exclude their meaningless week 18 game. Both of those metrics are significantly more predictive than win/loss records. The Bills did have a significantly better turnover margin (+24 vs. +6), but turnover margins are not very predictive. In fact, teams with turnover margins better than +1 per game in the regular season have a turnover margin on average of -0.3 in the post-season and have a post-season record of just 23-24.

The Ravens also got significantly better down the stretch once they benched struggling safety Marcus Williams after week 10. From week 11 to week 18, their defense ranked first in both yards per play allowed (4.39) and first down rate allowed (26.44%). In fairness, their offense wasn’t quite as good over that stretch as it was on the season as a whole, but they still ranked 4th in first down rate and 2nd in yards per play during that stretch at 34.76% and 6.50 respectively. In total, the Ravens had a yards per play differential of +2.11 and a first down rate differential of +8.33% over that stretch, both best in the league.

This spread seems to take some of this into account, favoring the Ravens by 1 point on the road, despite the Bills having a better record, but I think we’re still getting some line value with the visitors. My biggest concern with betting the Ravens is that they will likely be without top wide receiver Zay Flowers for the second straight week due to injury, after being one of the healthiest teams in the league in the regular season, but even with his absence the Ravens still have a 4-point edge over the Bills in my roster rankings, so I think the Ravens are still bettable even without Flowers, albeit for a smaller play than if Flowers was playing.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -1

Confidence: Medium

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 AFC Divisional Round Pick

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Houston Texans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

The Chiefs finished the regular season tied for the best record in the league at 15-2, but they didn’t blow out many opponents, with just four wins by more than eight points, which is relevant, with this line at 8.5. Only one of those four wins by more than eight points came against a fellow playoff qualifier, a 19-point win over the Steelers, who were eliminated in the first round and who were one of the weaker playoff qualifiers. Even excluding their meaningless week 18 loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs only finished the regular season with a first down rate differential of +1.34% and a yards per play differential of -0.04, which are both much more predictive than win/loss records.

However, the Chiefs seemed to turn a corner down the stretch, with their last three victories coming by 14 points, 8 points, and 19 points, including that aforementioned victory over the Steelers, a game in which the Chiefs didn’t even have their top defensive player Chris Jones due to injury. It’s very possible the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs were not giving their best effort for most of the season and are now turning it on late in the season. 

The Chiefs are also more talented and healthier now than they have been for most of the season. They are only missing one week 1 starter, wide receiver Rashee Rice, who has been out since week 4, and they have replaced him well by trading for DeAndre Hopkins after week 7 and getting back Marquise Brown after he missed the first 14 games of the season with injury. They have also recently gotten back other key players in running back Isaiah Pacheco (10 games missed), edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position.

The Texans, meanwhile, are probably the worst team left in the post-season. They finished the regular season negative in both first down rate differential (-0.80%) and yards per play differential (-0.04), ranking 4th worst and 2nd worst among playoff qualifiers in those metrics. They’re also one of the more injury plagued teams left in the playoffs, missing four above average week one starters, defensive backs Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, and wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. 

The Texans only lost by 8 when these two teams met a few weeks ago, in the middle of the Chiefs’ impressive late season stretch, but the Texans lost Dell and Ward in that game, after which the Chiefs went on a 10-3 run, even though the Chiefs also lost Chris Jones in that game, who has since returned. If the Chiefs can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh by 19 even without Jones, they can beat a comparable team in the Texans in Kansas City with Jones by at least 9. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Chiefs to be bettable, given their track record of playing close games this year, but for pick ‘em purposes I would be willing to guess that the Chiefs are permanently playing at a different level now than they were earlier in the season.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -8.5

Confidence: Low

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions: 2024 NFC Divisional Round Pick

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Washington Commanders (13-5) at Detroit Lions (15-2)

The Detroit Lions finished the regular season 15-2, while ranking 2nd in first down rate differential at 4.70% and 6th in yards per play differential at +0.48, while the Commanders finished 12-5 with a first down rate differential of +2.08% (7th in the NFL) and a yards per play differential of +0.31 (11th in the NFL). That is despite the fact that the Lions faced a much tougher schedule, entering the postseason with an opponents’ winning percentage of .516, 3rd best among playoff qualifiers, while the Commanders entered the postseason with an opponents’ winning percentage of .436, worst among playoff qualifiers. The Lions played 8 regular season games against playoff qualifiers, going 6-2 in those games, while the Commanders played just 5 games against playoff qualifiers and went 1-4 in those games.

However, this line favors the Lions by 9.5, which is pretty substantial and it means the Commanders don’t have to win, or even really come that close to winning, to cover this spread. With that in mind, there are some reasons to like the Commanders. While the Lions did beat six other playoff qualifiers, only two of those wins came by double digits, with none of those games coming against teams remaining in the playoffs. In fact, they’ve only played three games against teams remaining in the playoffs and the result of those three games was an overtime victory over the Rams, a 3-point win against the Texans on a long, last second field goal, and a loss to the Bills by 6. The Lions did beat the Packers by 10 and Vikings by 22 and, even if those teams have been eliminated, you can still argue they are on a comparable level to the Commanders, but the Lions also had games against those two teams in which they won by just 3 points and 2 points respectively.

The Commanders, meanwhile, only had one loss all season by double digits and that came all the way back in week 1, against a Buccaneers team that they beat last week. They did need garbage time touchdowns against the Ravens and Eagles to make those games closer than they otherwise would have been, but garbage time touchdowns still count and, even if the Lions lead by multiple touchdowns in the fourth quarter, there is still a possibility that the Commanders could mount a rally in garbage time to cut the lead to one score and cover this high spread.

The Commanders also have the injury edge. While the Lions are probably the most injury plagued team in the post-season, missing six week 1 starters, the Commanders are probably the healthiest playoff team, not missing a single week 1 starter. The Lions have been injury plagued for most of the season, while the Commanders have been relatively healthy for most of the season, but the Lions are still in a worse injury position than they have been for most of the season and the Commanders are in a better injury position than they have been for most of the season. With injuries taken into account, my roster rankings have the Lions five points better than the Commanders, which is not enough to justify this line being 9.5. I wouldn’t make a big bet on the Commanders, but they’re bettable for a small play.

Detroit Lions 31 Washington Commanders 24

Pick against the spread: Washington +9.5

Confidence: Medium