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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at New York Giants: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1) This line was at Denver -3 before week 1, but has moved to Denver -5 since, which doesn’t sound that significant, but it skipped over two key numbers in 3 and 4. Over 21% of NFL games are decided by either 3…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Chicago Bears (1-0) The Vikings were one of the teams I predicted a big win change for. Part of the reason for this is the Vikings went from 3 wins to 10 last season. Ordinarily, we can expect teams that have big win changes to have…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) I feel like I say this every week, but Andy Dalton is 1-11 in his career against future playoff teams in his first two years in the league, completing 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions,…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (1-0) at Houston Texans (1-0) Usually there are not a lot of changes in my Power Rankings from pre-week 1 to pre-week 2. I don’t like changing projections based on one week. The biggest move, by far, this week were the Tennessee Titans. In 2011, the Titans were…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (1-0) Last season, no team’s record was less indicative of their talent level than the Colts’ 11-5 record. For one, they had a ridiculous record in games decided by a touchdown or less, going 9-1 in those types of games. In fact, they had…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0) I feel like I talk about the Seahawks’ home/road disparity every week. Going back to 2007, they are 16-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.42 points per game, and 32-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.32 points per game. They are…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-1) One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend.…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick
New York Jets (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0) I have some rules for picking Thursday Night Games. I like home teams, particularly favorites, and particularly non-divisional favorites. This is a variety of reasons. I like home teams because you need all the time you can get on a short…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#1)
It might not seem like a 5 point win over the Panthers is that impressive, but if the Panthers are as good as I think they are, it is, especially in Carolina at 1 PM ET. The Seahawks have a very easy home schedule this year (San Francisco this week…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#2)
The only reason the 49ers aren’t #1 is because they lost the Super Bowl last season. no team has lost the Super Bowl and come back to win it the following season in over 40 years. No reigning Super Bowl loser has even made the Super Bowl the following season…
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