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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens: Week 16 NFL Pick
New York Giants (8-6) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5) The Giants stunk it up last week in Atlanta, getting shut out, losing 34-0. I generally like taking teams off a blowout loss. Teams in this situation tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed. The most recent case of this was the…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: Week 16 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (9-5) Everyone knows about the Seahawks’ home prowess, but it’s really, really significant, possibly even more than people realize. At home, they are 46-20 ATS since 2005, including 16-8 ATS as home dogs. They’ve already knocked off the Cowboys, Packers, and Patriots as…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 16 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (10-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12) Tom Brady and the Patriots lost last week, but there was still a lot to like from that game. They scored 34 points on the league’s best defense, despite a season high 4 turnovers and despite missing Rob Gronkowski. Their defense surrendered…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers: Week 16 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (4-10) at Carolina Panthers (5-9) One of my favorite trends is the six and six trend, which says that teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more. So far this year, teams that are currently 5-9 or…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 16 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (6-7-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) The Buccaneers got destroyed in New Orleans last week, losing 41-0. I generally like taking teams off a blowout loss. Teams in this situation tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed. The most recent case of this was the Cardinals’ blowing out…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 16 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) Apparently the roof is falling in Pittsburgh. They’ve gone from favored by 4.5 to favored by 3 (passing two key numbers) and the public is still on Cincinnati. Why? Because they lost in overtime in Dallas in a game that was meaningless for…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 16 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-12) The Colts lost to the Texans last week and still only have one impressive win on their schedule and by impressive win I mean a win over a playoff team or a blowout of a bad team. They beat the Packers in…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: Week 16 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6) The Cowboys entered December at 6-6 after a rough month of November, traditionally a strong month for them, and it looked unlikely that they would be unable to choke again this December, mostly because there would be nothing to choke away. However,…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: Week 16 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (5-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-8) The Bills got blown out last week, losing 50-17 “at home” in Toronto to the Seahawks. As a result, they rank 28th in points per drive at -0.58. The Dolphins, on the other hand, rank 17th at -0.04. If you take the difference,…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#1)
Last week: 2 (+1) Record: 10-3-1 Net points per drive: 0.90 (2nd) DVOA: 34.8% (4th) Weighted DVOA: 35.1% (4th) The 49ers won last week and earned this spot, at least until they lose in Seattle this week. Then would Seattle be #1 even though you can’t trust them to win…
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