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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (8-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) I have had a lot of success betting against the Buccaneers in recent weeks. They started the season 5-1, but were never as good as their record suggested, with four of those five wins coming by three points or fewer. Since then,…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 17 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week CLE 20 (+4.5) PIT 17 Upset Pick +160 High Confidence Picks DEN 20 KC 13 (+13.5) DET 28 (-7) MIN 17 DAL 34 (-7) WAS 20 MIA 24 (+6) TB 23 Upset Pick +220 NE 26 NYJ 17 (+13.5) Medium Confidence Picks NO 22 (-2.5) TEN…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders: 2025 Week 17 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) at Washington Commanders (4-11) The Cowboys have had the biggest disparity between their offensive and defensive performance of any team in the league. While their offense has been elite, ranking 4th in yards per play and 2nd in first down rate, their defense has been as bad…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2025 Week 17 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (8-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-8) The Lions’ home loss to the Steelers last week was surprising, for a couple reasons. For one, the Lions were big home favorites, favored by a full touchdown. On top of that, the Lions were coming off of a loss the previous week…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2025 Week 17 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (11-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) The Chiefs have had a disastrous two-week stretch. First, they were eliminated from playoff contention in a loss to the Chargers and lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL. Then last week, backup quarterback Gardner Minshew suffered a season ending knee…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 16 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week LAR 27 (+1.5) SEA 23 Upset Pick +105 High Confidence Picks DET 33 (-7) PIT 20 SF 24 IND 23 (+6) Medium Confidence Picks NO 21 (-5.5) NYJ 13 DAL 28 (-1.5) LAC 24 HOU 24 LV 13 (+14.5) KC 23 (-2.5) TEN 17 PHI 24…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Commanders (4-10) The Eagles don’t have a lot of blowout victories this season, with just two of their nine wins coming by more than seven points, which is relevant, considering this line favors the Eagles by seven. Those two wins by seven points came against…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) at Chicago Bears (10-4) A couple weeks ago, I bet on the Packers as 6.5-point home favorites against the Bears and they covered, but a lot has changed in the past couple weeks. For one, while the Packers did cover in that game, it was closer…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3) Both of these teams are 11-3, but the Rams have a significant edge in first down rate differential, +7.71% vs +5.54%, which is much more predictive than win/loss record. The Seahawks have a slight edge in yards per play differential, +1.51 vs.…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 15 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week PHI 20 LV 13 (+11.5) High Confidence Picks TB 24 ATL 23 (+6) CIN 30 (+3) BAL 27 Upset Pick +130 NO 23 (+3) CAR 20 Upset Pick +130 SEA 26 IND 17 (+14) HOU 20 ARZ 13 (+10.5) Medium Confidence Picks CHI 22 CLE 17…
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