Quarterback

The Bills have consistently been one of the best teams in the league since 2020, winning at least 11 games in six straight seasons since then, while leading the league with 73 total regular season wins over that stretch, but it hasn’t translated to any Super Bowl appearances. It is not as if they have no post-season success, winning at least one playoff game in all six of those seasons, becoming the first team in NFL history to win a playoff game in six straight seasons and not make the Super Bowl.

Josh Allen has gotten a lot of criticism for not taking this team to the Super Bowl yet, but he has performed pretty well in 15 career post-season games, completing 66.5% of his passes for an average of 7.33 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while rushing for 767 yards and 9 touchdowns on 135 carries (5.68 YPC). The bigger problem has been the Bills’ defense, which has surrendered 33.2 points per game in their six post-season losses since 2020.

Long-time head coach Sean McDermott had a lot of regular season success (98-50 since taking over as head coach in 2017), but he has a defensive background and finally paid the price for all of the Bills’ post-season defensive failures, getting fired this off-season. In his place, the Bills promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who has had a lot of success in three years on the job, and he hired promising defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard to run the defense, allowing Brady to continue focusing on offense and calling offensive plays. Whether or not this is what puts the Bills over the top remains to be seen, but changing things up makes sense at this point and the Bills seem likely to at least win a lot of regular season games again and remain in contention in the AFC.

Allen is going into his age 30 season, which is a bit of a concern for a quarterback whose athleticism is a big part of his game, but Allen has been extremely durable, not missing a game since his rookie year in 2018, despite 782 carries in seven seasons since then, so he could age better than most dual threat quarterbacks and remain an elite quarterback for years to come. Allen’s breakout as an elite quarterback coincides with the Bills’ breakout as one of the best seasons in the league, completing 65.8% of his passes for an average of 7.54 YPA, 190 touchdowns, and 73 interceptions and rushing for 3,580 yards and 62 touchdowns on 673 carries (5.32 YPC) in 101 starts since 2020. It shouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continues playing at a similar level in 2026.

If Allen does miss time with injury, the Bills would be in a lot of trouble, not just because of how good he is, but because they have an underwhelming backup quarterback situation, with Kyle Allen, who has a career 82.1 passer rating in 19 starts in eight seasons in the league and no starts since 2022, likely to remain the #2 quarterback, without another good alternative being added this off-season. Some good teams could survive a short stretch without their starting quarterback, but the Bills do not seem to be one of those teams. That being said, the likelihood of Kyle Allen being needed for an extended period of time is slim, given Allen’s history of durability.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

While their defense coming up short has been the primary issue for the Bills in their recent playoff defeats, the bigger issue last season was their lack of talent at the wide receiver position. In their ultimate playoff loss to the Denver Broncos, the Bills were using Brandin Cooks, a well past his prime player who got cut by the last place Saints earlier in the year, as their #2 wide receiver and top outside receiver. The Bills’ three leading receivers last season were slot receiver Khalil Shakir (72/719/4) and a pair of tight ends in Dalton Kincaid (39/571/5) and Dawson Knox (36/417/4), while their leading outside receiver was Keon Coleman (38/404/4), who was benched and made a healthy stretch on several occasions due to disappointments on and off the field. 

The Bills viewed getting a better outside receiver as paramount this off-season and paid a significant price to get DJ Moore from the Bears, giving up a late second round pick and picking up the remaining 98 million over four years owed on Moore’s contract, 49 million of which is guaranteed over the next two seasons. Moore used to be a consistent 1000+ yard receiver, surpassing that mark in four of five seasons from 2019-2023, but he had an inefficient 98/966/6 on 140 targets (6.90 yards per target) in 2024 and then a career low 50/682/6 slash line on 85 targets in 2025, slowly getting phased out of the Bears’ offense down the stretch, with just 41 targets in the Bears’ final 9 games. 

Moore is still only going into his age 29 season and hasn’t missed a game since 2020, so he shouldn’t be washed up yet. More likely his statistical decline over the past two seasons is more the result of poor chemistry with new quarterback Caleb Williams than Moore himself declining, but the Bills paid a steep price in terms of draft compensation to get a player who has a lot of guaranteed money left on his contract and whose current team had been phasing him out for younger players. He should at least be somewhat of an upgrade for the Bills, but it is fair to question the price they paid to get him. 

Moore might lead the Bills in targets, but both Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid figure to still be heavily involved in the offense, as they are targets Josh Allen trusts, who have been very efficient for this offense. Shakir has caught 75.8% of his targets in four seasons in the league, while averaging 8.89 yards per target and 1.81 yards per route run, so he doesn’t need a huge target share to have a significant impact on this offense. Kincaid, meanwhile, has averaged 1.80 yards per route run and 7.87 yards per target in his career, including 2.79 yards per route run (1st among tight ends) and 11.65 yards per target last season, showing the talent that made him a first round pick in 2023.

Kincaid’s biggest issue in his career has been injuries, costing him nine games over the past two seasons and limiting his snap count in others (35.9 snaps per game when he does play), but he obviously has the talent to be a talented every down tight end if he can ever stay healthy enough to play a full snap count. Whether that happens this season or not remains to be seen, but I would project him to at least play more than last season. He might not be as efficient, but he could still produce enough to have a significant impact on this offense.

If Kincaid stays healthier this season, his playing time would likely come at the expense of Dawson Knox, who is a much less efficient target, averaging 1.11 yards per route run and 7.74 yards per target in seven seasons in the league. Now going into his age 30 season, Knox is unlikely to get any better at this stage of his career and could get worse, so it would be for the best for the Bills’ offense if he was more of a traditional #2 tight end. The Bills also have Jackson Hawes, a 2025 5th round pick who excelled as a blocking specialist as a rookie, blocking on 78.9% of his snaps, but also averaging 1.81 yards per route run in his limited role as a pass catcher. He should play a similar role in 2026 and, if he ever got an expanded role in the passing game, he could surprise people and be somewhat productive. 

Keon Coleman and Josh Palmer, their two most productive outside receivers by default, both remain on the roster and will compete for the #3 wide receiver role. Other options for that role include 4th round rookie Skyler Bell and blocking specialist Tyrell Shavers, who played 441 snaps last season, after only playing 32 snaps in his first two seasons in the league, and averaged just 1.17 yards per route run, while blocking on 50.1% of his snaps. The Bills have made big investments in Coleman and Palmer and are probably hoping one of the two wins the job.

Coleman was selected in the first round in 2024, is still only going into his age 23 season, and has flashed potential thus far in his career, averaging 1.50 yards per route run, but the Bills have been disappointed with his effort off-the-field and have been underwhelmed with his abilities on the field thus far. However, it sounds like he is getting a clean slate going into his age 26 season and he has the talent to be the favorite for the #3 receiver job. 

Palmer, meanwhile, is owed 10.25 million mostly guaranteed this season on a 3-year, 29 million dollar contract the Bills signed him to last off-season, but that guaranteed money is probably the only reason he is still on the roster, as he had just a 22/303/0 slash line and 1.28 yards per route run last season. He has been a little better in the past, but his career 1.37 yards per route run average isn’t particularly impressive either. It seems unlikely he will have a significant role in this offense and he could be overtaken by the rookie Bell for the #4 receiver job at some point this season, as Bell was a great value at his draft slot and has the tools to be a long-term starter. This should be a better receiver corps than a year ago, with DJ Moore added, Dalton Kincaid potentially being healthier, and Keon Coleman potentially taking a step forward.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Bills’ offensive line was a concern going into this off-season because they had been an above average unit in recent years, but had a pair of starters, left guard David Edwards and center Connor McGovern, set to hit free agency. However, the Bills were able to retain McGovern on a 4-year, 52 million dollar deal and, while they lost Edwards, he was the more replaceable of the two. In his absence, the Bills will either promote Alec Anderson, their top reserve the past two seasons, or plug in veteran free agent addition Austin Corbett.

Anderson has flashed a lot of potential on snap counts of 290 and 189 over the past two seasons respectively, but the 2022 undrafted free agent is still a projection to a larger role and also the Bills like him as a 6th offensive lineman in jumbo packages, which the Bills have run more than any team in the league over the past two seasons, so the Bills may prefer to start Corbett, a more experienced and proven starter. 

Corbett has started 78 games in 8 seasons in the league (67 at guard, 10 at center, and 1 at tackle) and has always been an average to above average starter, but the concern with him is both age, going into his age 31 season, and durability, missing 29 games over the past three seasons combined, which is why the Bills were able to get him on only a 1-year, 1.4875 million dollar deal. He was still decent across 11 starts last season and could prove to be a steal if he can stay healthy and avoid any further decline, but that is a big if at this point. The Bills may wind up starting the unproven Anderson, with Corbett operating as a versatile reserve and their 6th offensive lineman when they run jumbo packages.

Fortunately, the rest of this offensive line stays the same from the past two seasons. McGovern, a 2020 3rd round pick by the Cowboys, was a bit of a late bloomer, not having an above average season until his 5th season in the league in 2024, but he now has back-to-back above average seasons and still is only going into his age 29 season, so I would expect more of the same from him in 2026. Right guard O’Cyrus Torrence has made 50 starts in three seasons in the league since being drafted in the second round in 2023 and he has been decent, but unspectacular.

The strength of this offensive line is the tackle position, where left tackle Dion Dawkins has been an above average starter for most of his career (137 starts in 9 seasons in the league), while Spencer Brown, a 2021 3rd round pick (69 starts in 5 seasons in the league), has also developed into an above average in recent years. Dawkins’ age is becoming a concern, as he is going into his age 32 season and could decline somewhat this season, which would hurt this offensive line somewhat, but he would have to decline a lot to become a liability.

Along with Dawkins’ age and the uncertainty at left guard, the other big concern on this offensive line is depth. Whoever does not start at left guard will provide solid depth, but the rest of the Bills’ reserves are a concern, with talented swing tackle Ryan Van Demark leaving in free agency. Other depth options include 4th round rookie Jude Bowry, who will compete with 2024 6th round pick Tylan Grable (146 snaps in two seasons in the league) for the swing tackle job, and backup center Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, a 2024 5th round pick who has played 217 snaps in two seasons in the league. The lack of depth is made more concerning by the fact that the Bills use six offensive linemen on the field more than any team in the league. This is still a solid offensive line, but they probably won’t be quite as good as they have been the past two years.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Outside of Josh Allen, the Bills’ best offensive player is running back James Cook. A second round pick in 2022, Cook is undersized at 5-11 190, which had historically led to the Bills reducing his workload, despite his obvious talent, in an effort to keep him from tiring out or getting injured. That changed in 2025, when Cook set career highs in snaps (639) and carries (309), and he responded by leading the league in rushing yards with 1,621 on an average of 5.25 yards per carry. In total, Cook has averaged 5.06 yards per attempt in his career, with 3.05 yards per carry after contact, a 18.2% missed tackle rate, and 54.9% carry success rate. He’s also been extremely durable, despite his size, missing just one game in four seasons in the league.

The Bills give Cook a rest in obvious passing situations, as many teams do with an elite lead back, swapping him out for passing down specialist Ty Johnson, but Cook still totaled a 33/291/2 slash line in the passing game, averaging 1.11 yards per route run, not far off from his career 1.28 yards per route run average. Johnson, more of a receiver than a running back, had a 24/263/2 slash line and averaged 1.18 yards per route run, in line with his career 1.22 yards per route run average, while playing 83.9% of his 335 snaps on pass plays. In seven seasons in the league, he has totaled just 329 carries in 106 games.

If Cook were to miss time, Ray Davis would probably be the featured runner, with Johnson remaining in a pure passing down role, maybe taking on a couple extra carries at most. Davis was a 4th round pick in 2024 and has shown some potential in two seasons in the league, averaging 4.19 YPC on 171 carries, with 2.92 yards per carry after contact, a 22.8% missed tackle rate, a 49.1% carry success rate. He’d obviously be a big downgrade from Cook if Cook was injured, but he isn’t bad as far as true backups go and Cook’s history suggests there is a better than average chance that he plays every game. Led by an elite, durable lead back, with decent depth behind him, the Bills are in good shape at the running back position.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

While the Bills’ defense has typically been what has let them down in the post-season in recent years, they actually weren’t bad in the regular season last season, ranking 18th in schedule adjusted efficiency, despite having the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league on that side of the ball. Probably their most impactful absence on defense last season was Ed Oliver, who played just 108 snaps in three games due to injuries to his ankle, arm, and knee. When healthy, Oliver is one of the best interior pass rushers in the league, with 30 sacks, 54 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 95 games in seven seasons in the league, since being selected 9th overall in 2019. He is generally a below average run defender, but his pass rush more than makes up for it. 

The amount of injuries he suffered last season is concerning, but he still made it back for the post-season, so he should be well past those injuries by the start of the 2026 season and he is still only going into his age 29 season. Durability has been a bit of a concern for him in recent years, as he also missed seven games between 2022-2024, but at the very least, Oliver should be on the field much more in 2026 than he was in 2025, which will be a big boost for this defense.

Making Oliver’s injury worse is the fact that Daquan Jones and TJ Sanders, who were their #2 and #3 interior defenders, also missed five games each. With all of their injuries, the Bills were led in snaps at the interior defender position by 4th round rookie Deone Walker, who was decent across 464 snaps, both as a run defender and a pass rusher (6.9% pressure rate). Jones is gone, not being retained ahead of his age 35 season, but with Oliver back and Walker looking like a potential future starter, the loss of Jones isn’t that big of a deal. Sanders, meanwhile, struggled across 296 snaps last season, but he was also a rookie and the 2025 2nd round pick could take a step forward, perhaps a significant step forward, in year two in 2026. 

Deep reserve options at the interior defender position for the Bills include DeWayne Carter, a 2024 3rd round pick who struggled across 315 snaps as a rookie and then missed last season with a torn achilles, and 2025 3rd round pick Landon Jackson, who was originally drafted as an oversized edge defender at 6-7 280, but who only got on the field for 30 snaps as a rookie and will now gain weight and move inside in an attempt to jump start his career. The Bills will be hoping they don’t need either of them for a significant role in a position group that should be better than a year ago due to better health and continued development from young players.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bills’ edge defender group, on the other hand, could be worse this season than a year ago, as they let veteran Joey Bosa walk and replaced him with Bradley Chubb, who figures to be a downgrade, despite being signed to a 3-year, 43.5 million dollar deal with 26.97 million guaranteed. It was an odd decision. Bosa left something to be desired as a run defender last season, but excelled as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate. The concerns with Bosa are age, going into his age 31 season, and injury history, 39 games missed over the past 8 seasons, including 2 games missed in 2025, but Chubb is going into his age 30 season and has an extensive injury history as well, in addition to being a downgrade from Bosa. 

Chubb didn’t miss a game last season, but he has missed 43 games in 8 seasons in the league, including all of 2024 with a multi-ligament knee injury, and he did not seem the same upon his return, struggling mightily against the run and not rushing the passer at a high enough level to make up for it, totaling 8.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate. Both as a run defender and a pass rusher, Chubb was worse than Bosa in 2025. Chubb has had better years in the past, but given his age and injury history, it seems unlikely he will ever regain his old form. Chubb will start in Bosa’s old role (37.5 snaps per game) opposite Greg Rousseau, a mainstay on this defensive line since being selected 30th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Rousseau doesn’t usually get mentioned as a top pass rusher and only has 32 sacks in his career, but that is partially because he rotates more than most top edge defenders, playing 589 snaps per season in his career, including 631 last season, and he also has much better peripheral pass rush stats than his sack totals would suggest, totaling 60 hits and a 13.9% pressure rate in 78 career games. He is also a consistently above average run defender. Last season was arguably the best of his career, as he totaled 7 sacks, 16 hits, and a 14.9% pressure rate, while playing at a career best level against the run. Still only in his age 26 season, with minimal injury history (six games missed in five seasons in the league), he should remain a well above average all-around edge defender for at least a few more seasons.

In addition to signing Chubb, the Bills also used a 2nd round pick on TJ Parker to replace top reserve AJ Epenesa, who was decent across 437 snaps last season, before leaving in free agency, and they signed veteran Mike Danna to compete for deep reserve snaps with Michael Hoecht, who only played in two seasons last season due to suspension and a torn achilles. Parker could have some growing pains as a rookie, but he also could have been a first round pick and was a good value at the top of the second round, after the Bills traded out of the late first round. He should be solid as the Bills 3rd edge defender.

Danna is a mediocre option, playing decent run defense in his career, but only managing a 8.1% pressure rate, while playing 495 snaps per season in six seasons in the league (389 in 2025). He’s not bad as a 4th defensive end option though. Hoecht, meanwhile, has been a little bit better in his career, with a career 10.4% pressure rate, along with generally decent run defense, while playing 669 snaps per season from 2022-2024, but the torn achilles he suffered last season complicates his projection. This position group isn’t as good with Bradley Chubb replacing Joey Bosa, but this is still a slightly above average position group overall, led by the highly reliable and all-around well above average Greg Rousseau.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Bills also had a lot of injuries in their linebacking corps last season. The problem is most of their linebackers weren’t good anyway and the only one who was decent, Shaq Thompson (417 snaps in 11 games) was not retained this off-season. Also not retained this off-season was Matt Milano, who struggled across 492 snaps in 12 games, but whose departure leaves the Bills very thin at the linebacker position behind Terrel Bernard (623 snaps in 12 games) and Dorian Williams (433 snaps in 16 games), who both also struggled last season.

Bernard, a 2022 3rd round pick, has been below average in each of the last three seasons, playing 56.5 snaps per game, while missing nine games total in the past two seasons. Dorian Williams, a 2023 3rd round pick, has maybe been marginally better, but still below average he has played an average of just 25.9 snaps per game in three seasons in the league, with a maximum of 651 snaps played in a season. He will almost definitely have to play an expanded role this season, especially if Bernard misses more time with injury. 

Behind Bernard and Williams, the third linebacker role will either go to Joe Andreessen, a 2024 undrafted free agent who has played just 211 snaps in two seasons in the league, or 4th round rookie Kaleb Elarms-Orr. The third linebacker only plays in obvious running situations, but if either Bernard or Williams miss time with injury, whoever is the third linebacker would have to move into an every down role. This is a well below average position group overall.

Grade: C

Secondary

Top cornerback Christian Benford also dealt with injuries last season, missing three games and being limited in others. Normally a well above average starting cornerback, Benford was only slightly above average last season, which hurt this secondary. Still only in his age 26 season, he could easily bounce back this season, which would be needed for a cornerback room that otherwise has upside, but not a lot of experience. 

Tre’Davious White (700 snaps) and Taron Johnson (571 snaps) played key roles in this secondary last season, but were average at best and were not retained this off-season. In their absence, the Bills will start Maxwell Hairston, a 2025 1st round pick who flashed his first round talent across just 348 snaps in 11 games in an injury plagued rookie season, while 2nd round rookie Davison Igbinosun will compete for the third cornerback job with veteran free agent additions Dee Alford and CJ Gardner-Johnson, who are both mediocre options. 

Alford has averaged 531 snaps per season over four seasons in the league (581 in 2025), primarily on the slot (78.2% of snaps), but the 2022 undrafted free agent has generally been a liability. Meanwhile, Gardner-Johnson struggled mightily last season across 767 snaps with the Texans, Ravens, and the Bears, getting cut mid-season by Houston and Baltimore. He has had some decent seasons in the past, but he has also been very injury prone, missing 29 games over the past five seasons. It’s possible he could bounce back at least a little bit in 2026, but it is also possible that all his injuries have permanently sapped his abilities.

Gardner-Johnson could also be a candidate at safety, which is also an unsettled position. Cole Bishop, a 2024 2nd round pick, broke out as an above average starter in 2025, after only playing 358 mediocre snaps as a rookie, but opposite him the Bills started three other safeties. Veteran Jordan Poyer was probably the best of the bunch by default, but he wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season, ahead of his age 35 season. The rest of the Bills’ starting safeties last season struggled and are also no longer on the roster. 

Jordan Hancock, a 2025 5th round pick, flashed potential as a rookie, but only across 150 snaps and he didn’t make a single start, despite a need at the position, so he probably isn’t a real candidate to start opposite Bishop in 2026. Veteran free agent addition Geno Stone is a more realistic candidate to start and will probably primarily compete with Gardner-Johnson. Stone finished second in the league with 7 interceptions in 2023, but also missed a lot of tackles and gave up a lot of big plays, as he has throughout his career, when he has otherwise totaled just 7 interceptions in 66 games. This secondary has some upside, but also a lot of concerns.

Grade: B-

Kickers

Tyler Bass was supposed to be the Bills’ kicker in 2025, for the 6th straight season, since being drafted in the 6th round in 2020. However, he suffered what ended up being a season ending hip and groin injury before the season even started. That ended up being a blessing in disguise though, as Bass had cost the Bills 11.49 points compared to an average kicker in his first five seasons in the league combined, while Prater turned back the clock and actually contributed 2.64 points above an average kicker in 2025. Prater wasn’t retained ahead of what would have been his age 42 season in 2026 and the Bills didn’t add any other kickers, leaving Bass in that role, even though he is an underwhelming option and coming off of a significant leg injury. It is hard to imagine he won’t be at least somewhat of a liability in 2026.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Bills figure to win somewhere between their usual 11 and 13 games again in 2026. That won’t mean anything to some people though if they can’t finally get over the hump in the post-season. Whether or not they can do that remains to be seen, but consistently qualifying, getting a high seed, and winning at least one game is an accomplishment in and of itself and doing that year after year will likely lead to them winning it all at some point. Expect them to at least be contenders again this season.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in AFC East