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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) The 49ers were statistically the better of these two teams in the regular season. While the Eagles had the edge in yards per play differential, ranking 10th at +0.29 while the 49ers ranked 18th at -0.11, the 49ers had a bigger edge…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots: 2025 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at New England Patriots (14-3) The big knock against the Patriots is their weak schedule and it’s a fair point, as they have faced one of the weakest schedules in NFL history, including just three games against teams with a winning record. However, the Patriots dominated…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2025 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) The Jaguars started the season 4-1, but they had a league leading +10 turnover margin in those games, which is very unpredictive on a week-to-week basis, so their hot start looked like a fluke. Sure enough, the Jaguars saw their turnover luck stop…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) Both of these teams finished the regular season significantly worse than their record would suggest in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate differential and yards per play differential, both of which tend to be much more predictive…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9) The Panthers beat the Rams in Carolina a few weeks ago, but the Rams dominated the first down rate battle (+14.89%) and the yards per play battle (+1.66), which are much more predictive. The game, which the Panthers won by 3, legitimately…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6) The Bears finished the regular season with a better record than the Packers, but the Packers were statistically the better team this season, finishing with a yards per play differential of +0.60 and a first down rate differential of +1.92%, as opposed…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 18 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week NE 34 (-10.5) MIA 13 High Confidence Picks HOU 20 IND 16 (+10.5) JAX 30 (-12.5) TEN 10 CIN 28 (-7.5) CLE 17 Medium Confidence Picks BAL 19 PIT 17 (+4) CHI 28 DET 27 (+4.5) Low Confidence Picks LAR 31 (-14) ARZ 15 PHI 24…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) The Browns were my top pick last week as 4.5-point home underdogs against the Steelers, but that was because the Steelers were missing a lot of key personnel and were in the type of spot where they have historically struggled under head coach…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (7-9) at New England Patriots (13-3) I made a big bet on the Dolphins last week as 6-point home underdogs against the Buccaneers, but that was much more a bet against the Buccaneers, who have one win since week 8 and just two wins by more than three…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (13-3) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4) The 49ers have been on fire since getting quarterback Brock Purdy back from injury, winning six straight games while Purdy has played at a borderline MVP level over that stretch. This week, he will be without left tackle Trent Williams due to…
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