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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (9-5) at Seattle Seahawks (10-4) The Rams lost at home in embarrassing fashion to the previously winless Jets, in the biggest upset win in the NFL in the past 25 seasons (17.5 point favorites). Normally big upset losses like that tend to be complete flukes and the…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
New York Giants (5-9) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5) The Giants are a tough team to predict. Coming out of their week 11 bye, the Giants looked like they would be a good bet going forward. They were just 3-7, but they had faced a tough schedule to start their season,…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (3-12-1) at Houston Texans (4-10) Neither side is particularly appealing in this matchup. The Bengals pulled a massive upset over the Steelers last week as 14.5-point underdogs, but big upset wins like that tend to be flukes that don’t lead to further success down the line. Teams cover…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (7-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13) Earlier this season, I thought the Bears would regress as the season went on because offensive performance is much more consistent week-to-week than defensive performance and the Bears were a middling team with a poor offense and a strong defense. Their defense has…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (10-4) at New York Jets (1-13) The Jets won their first game of the season last week, shocking the Rams as 17-point underdogs, but I wouldn’t expect anything close to a repeat of that this week. Even with that win, the Jets still rank dead last in schedule…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (10-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-3) These two teams are very similar. Both teams are worse than their record suggests in schedule adjusted first down rate differential, with the Titans ranking 15th at +0.57% and the Packers ranking 16th at +0.37%, but both teams have great offenses and…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) Several weeks ago, I said that the rule of thumb with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs was to pick them unless there’s a good reason not to, citing their 28-15-2 ATS record in games in which Mahomes has started in his career,…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (5-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) The Chargers are just 5-9, but most of their losses have been close, with 7 of their 9 wins coming by one score or less, including blown leads against high level teams like the Saints, Buccaneers, and Chiefs. In terms of schedule…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) at Detroit Lions (5-9) The Buccaneers’ 9-5 record doesn’t jump off the page, but they’ve been one of the better teams in the league this season. They’ve faced one of the toughest schedules in the league, with their five losses coming against opponents who are a…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (9-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7) Both of these teams have not been as good as their record suggests. The Raiders are 7-7, but 6 of their 7 wins have come by 10 points or fewer, with the exception being a game in which the Raiders won the…
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