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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (5-9) at Arizona Cardinals (8-6) The 49ers lost last week in upset fashion to the Cowboys and that seems to have caused the public and the oddsmakers to sour on them, with this line shifting from Arizona -3 on the early line last week to Arizona -5…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints: 2020 Week 16 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at New Orleans Saints (10-4) One interesting metric that I look at is called variance, which measures the variance in a team’s performance from week-to-week. The Saints have been among the league leaders in this metric this year, ranking 4th, meaning they’ve been one of the least…
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Continue reading →: 2020 NFL Pick Results (Through Week 15)
2020 Pick of the Week: 9-5-1 (63.33%) High Confidence Picks: 14-11 (56.00%) Medium Confidence Picks: 34-32-1 (51.49%) Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 57-48-2 (54.21%) Low Confidence Picks: 39-33 (54.17%) No Confidence Picks: 14-29-2 (33.33%) Total Against the Spread: 110-110-4 (50.00%) Moneyline Upset Picks: 16-17 (48.48%) All-Time (Since 2013) Total…
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Continue reading →: 2020 Week 15 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week NO +3 vs. KC High Confidence Picks JAX +13 @ BAL Medium Confidence Picks LAC +3.5 @ LV CIN +14 vs. PIT CLE -6 @ NYG DAL +3.5 vs. SF NE +1 @ MIA Low Confidence Picks BUF -5.5 @ DEN HOU +7.5 @ IND PHI…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans: 2020 Week 15 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (5-8) at Tennessee Titans (9-4) This line has finally posted, favoring the Titans by 9 points at home over the Lions, with Matt Stafford expected to play through a rib injury. If Stafford was healthy and not at risk of an in-game setback, I would have been all…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at New York Giants: 2020 Week 15 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (9-4) at New York Giants (5-8) Coming out of their bye week a couple weeks ago, the Giants looked like they would be a good bet going forward. They were just 3-7, but they had faced a tough schedule to start their season, including 9 out of 10…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 15 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (5-8) at Dallas Cowboys (4-9) The Cowboys have had a disappointing season, but there are some reasons to be optimistic about their chances of covering spreads going forward. The Cowboys’ offense hasn’t been as good since losing Dak Prescott, not to mention their top-3 offensive linemen in…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2020 Week 15 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-10-1) The Steelers started 11-0, but they’ve been exposed over the past two weeks, losing to Washington and Buffalo in back-to-back games. They have a very good chance at getting back into the win column this week against the lowly Bengals, but whether or…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2020 Week 15 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-9) The Falcons are just 4-9, but they’ve been competitive in most of their games, losing just three times by more than one score and losing three games in which they had a 95% chance of winning late. None of their losses have…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2020 Week 15 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (6-7) at Minnesota Vikings (6-7) Typically, I like to go against significant week-to-week line swings, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. This game features one, as the Vikings have gone from being favored by 6 points on the early line last week…
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