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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 AFC Wild Card Round Pick
Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) Both of these teams finished the regular season significantly worse than their record would suggest in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate differential and yards per play differential, both of which tend to be much more predictive…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9) The Panthers beat the Rams in Carolina a few weeks ago, but the Rams dominated the first down rate battle (+14.89%) and the yards per play battle (+1.66), which are much more predictive. The game, which the Panthers won by 3, legitimately…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick
Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6) The Bears finished the regular season with a better record than the Packers, but the Packers were statistically the better team this season, finishing with a yards per play differential of +0.60 and a first down rate differential of +1.92%, as opposed…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 18 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week NE 34 (-10.5) MIA 13 High Confidence Picks HOU 20 IND 16 (+10.5) JAX 30 (-12.5) TEN 10 CIN 28 (-7.5) CLE 17 Medium Confidence Picks BAL 19 PIT 17 (+4) CHI 28 DET 27 (+4.5) Low Confidence Picks LAR 31 (-14) ARZ 15 PHI 24…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) The Browns were my top pick last week as 4.5-point home underdogs against the Steelers, but that was because the Steelers were missing a lot of key personnel and were in the type of spot where they have historically struggled under head coach…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (7-9) at New England Patriots (13-3) I made a big bet on the Dolphins last week as 6-point home underdogs against the Buccaneers, but that was much more a bet against the Buccaneers, who have one win since week 8 and just two wins by more than three…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (13-3) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4) The 49ers have been on fire since getting quarterback Brock Purdy back from injury, winning six straight games while Purdy has played at a borderline MVP level over that stretch. This week, he will be without left tackle Trent Williams due to…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (8-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) I have had a lot of success betting against the Buccaneers in recent weeks. They started the season 5-1, but were never as good as their record suggested, with four of those five wins coming by three points or fewer. Since then,…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 17 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week CLE 20 (+4.5) PIT 17 Upset Pick +160 High Confidence Picks DEN 20 KC 13 (+13.5) DET 28 (-7) MIN 17 DAL 34 (-7) WAS 20 MIA 24 (+6) TB 23 Upset Pick +220 NE 26 NYJ 17 (+13.5) Medium Confidence Picks NO 22 (-2.5) TEN…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders: 2025 Week 17 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) at Washington Commanders (4-11) The Cowboys have had the biggest disparity between their offensive and defensive performance of any team in the league. While their offense has been elite, ranking 4th in yards per play and 2nd in first down rate, their defense has been as bad…
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