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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2025 Week 4 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-1) Going into the season, I thought the Cardinals were the sleeper team in the NFC West, but the Seahawks have been the better team through three weeks, with a first down rate differential of +5.01% and a yards per play differential of +0.97,…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 3 NFL Picks
142-89 ATS (61.5%) on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) since 2023, 57.4% ATS all-time Pick of the Week NE 24 (+1.5) PIT 17 Upset Pick +105 High Confidence Picks LV 23 (+3) WAS 20 Upset Pick +130 Medium Confidence Picks SEA 19 NO 14 (+7.5) ATL 26 CAR 24…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2025 Week 3 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (0-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-0) The Bills are in a good spot as big divisional favorites on Thursday Night Football, as teams are 38-20 ATS as home favorites of 7.5+ in this spot as long as both teams are on short rest. On top of that, the Dolphins…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 2 NFL Picks
139-85 ATS (62.1%) on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) since 2023, 57.6% ATS all-time Pick of the Week BAL 34 (-11.5) CLE 13 High Confidence Picks ARZ 34 (-6.5) CAR 20 LV 28 (+3.5) LAC 26 Upset Pick +155 SEA 24 (+3.5) PIT 23 Upset Pick +145 Medium Confidence…
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Continue reading →: Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers: 2025 Week 2 NFL Pick
Washington Commanders (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0) The Packers are in a good spot this week. Non-divisional home favorites cover at a 60.7% rate on Thursday Night Football because it’s very tough for a team to travel on a short week, unless it is a divisional matchup between familiar…
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Continue reading →: 2025 Week 1 NFL Picks
131-85 ATS on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) in 2023-2024, 57.3% ATS all-time Pick of the Week DEN 20 TEN 17 (+8.5) High Confidence Picks NYJ 19 (+3) PIT 17 Upset Pick +130 ARZ 27 (-6.5) NO 13 Medium Confidence Picks JAX 31 (-3.5) CAR 24 SF 24 (-1)…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2025 Week 1 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) in Brazil The Chiefs won 15 games and made the Super Bowl a year ago, but they didn’t have a lot of wins by big margins, with just three of their 17 victories coming by more than 10 points, six coming…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 Week 1 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) The Eagles are defending Super Bowl Champions at home in the first game of the season, which tends to be a good spot for teams, going 13-6-1 ATS since 2005. Unfortunately, we have lost significant line value in the last week, with this…
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Continue reading →: 2025 NFL Season Previews
AFC East Buffalo Bills 15-2* New England Patriots 9-8 Miami Dolphins 7-10 New York Jets 6-11 AFC North Baltimore Ravens 16-1* Cincinnati Bengals 10-7* Pittsburgh Steelers 5-12 Cleveland Browns 2-15 AFC South Tennessee Titans 7-10* Indianapolis Colts 7-10 Jacksonville Jaguars 6-11 Houston Texans 6-11 AFC West Kansas City Chiefs 12-5*…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals 2025 NFL Season Preview
Quarterback The Bengals made the Super Bowl at the end of the 2021 season and then made it back to the AFC Championship game in 2022, but they have missed the post-season in back-to-back seasons since then. In 2023, the big issue was quarterback Joe Burrow not being healthy for…
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