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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-0) This is a battle between a pair of 3-0 teams in the AFC East, but these two teams have had very different paths to 3-0. While the Patriots have dominated everyone they’ve faced, leading the league with a +21.55% first down rate…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Miami Dolphins (0-3) Typically, betting teams off of back-to-back blowout losses is a smart move, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that situation. Since 2002, teams are 49-34 ATS off of back-to-back losses of 21+. That applies to the Dolphins this…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0) Probably the most surprising stat from this early season is the Buccaneers ranking 4th in first down rate allowed at 30.73%, after finishing 30th at 40.98% last season. The Buccaneers made changes on defense this off-season, but didn’t add any marquee…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at New York Giants: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (0-3) at New York Giants (1-2) I was hoping to be able to fade the Daniel Jones hype this week, as I felt the loss of running back Saquon Barkley was important to the Giants’ chances of winning going forward than Jones having a strong debut against an…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (2-1) The Cowboys are one of six teams currently 3-0. That’s where they should be, given that their schedule has had them face three of the worst teams in the league (Giants, Redskins, Dolphins) in the first three weeks of the season, but…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Denver Broncos (0-3) Minshew Mania has taken over Jacksonville, with backup quarterback and rookie sixth round pick Gardner Minshew leading the Jaguars to their first win of the season last week on Thursday Night Football. Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles in the first…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Houston Texans (2-1) The Panthers come into this game just 1-2, but they could easily be 3-0 right now. They lost their first 2 games by a combined 9 points, including a 3-point loss to the Rams in which they failed to recover a single one…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (0-2-1) The Seahawks picked up their first loss of the season last week at home against the Teddy Bridgewater led Saints, but they actually had a better first down rate differential last week than they had in either of their two wins. They won…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Detroit Lions (2-0-1) Detroit +7 is one of two lines I locked in earlier this week, along with Cleveland +7. I legitimately don’t understand this line. It was at 6 last week and I thought it might be closer to 3 following the Lions’ upset…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1) I typically like to bet against significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This line has climbed all the way from Baltimore -4 on the early line last week to Baltimore -7 this…
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