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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers: 2018 Week 10 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (5-4) at Green Bay Packers (3-4-1) The Dolphins managed just 7 first downs and 168 yards of offense at home last week against a mediocre Jets team, but managed to win by a touchdown because they won the turnover margin by 4 and got a defensive touchdown that…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals: 2018 Week 10 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (7-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3) I’ve picked the Saints every week since week 3, after they got off to one of their typical slow starts (2-12 ATS in the first 2 games of the season since 2012, 56-38 ATS after week 2), and they’ve covered in all…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2018 Week 10 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4) The Eagles have been on my underrated list for a few weeks, as I don’t think they’re really that much worse than last season. They are 4-4, but their 4 losses have come by a combined 15 points and they rank 3rd in…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs: 2018 Week 10 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (2-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) The Cardinals have been pretty terrible this season, but their offense looked much better in their first game under new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and it wouldn’t surprise me if they were better in their first game out of the bye as…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2018 Week 10 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5) at Indianapolis Colts (3-5) The Colts are high on my underrated list coming out of their bye. They are just 3-5, but they are positive in both point differential (+18) and first down rate differential (+0.91%), despite being arguably the most injury plagued team in the league…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2018 Week 10 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (3-5) at Chicago Bears (5-3) The Bears are quietly one of the better teams in the league. They’re only 5-3, but their 3 losses came by a combined 11 points and they actually won the first down rate battle in 2 of those 3 losses. On the season,…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2018 Week 10 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2-1) Typically the rule of thumb for betting Thursday Night Football is to take the home team as long as they are comparable to or better than their opponents and as long as it’s not a division game. Non-divisional home favorites are 33-15 ATS…
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Continue reading →: 2018 Week 9 NFL Pick Results
Week 9 Total Against the Spread: 8-5 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence Picks: 1-0 Medium Confidence Picks: 0-2 Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 1-3 Low Confidence Picks: 2-1 No Confidence Picks: 5-1 Upset Picks: 2-1 2018 Total Against the Spread: 81-50-3 (61.57%) Pick of the Week: 4-4-1…
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Continue reading →: 2018 Week 9 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week WAS -1.5 vs. ATL High Confidence Picks LAC +1.5 @ SEA Medium Confidence Picks TB +6.5 @ CAR NYJ +3 @ MIA Low Confidence Picks NO +1.5 vs. LAR NE -5 vs. GB BAL -2.5 vs. PIT No Confidence Picks KC -9 @ CLE CHI -10…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys: 2018 Week 9 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (3-4) These two teams are pretty similar, both with strong defenses and weak offenses. The Cowboys rank 25th in first down rate at 33.81% and 4th in first down rate allowed at 31.47%, while the Titans rank 29th in first down rate at 30.17%…
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