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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-1) Last week I called the Cardinals a fraudulent 3-0 team. Every year it seems there’s one team that gets off to a hot start and then crashes and burns. The Dolphins started 3-0 last year. The Cardinals started 4-0 in 2012. The Bills…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (3-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) The Bengals got destroyed last week by the Patriots, who got destroyed the previous week by the Chiefs, and now they’re without AJ Green, after already being without Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert. How will they be able to bounce back? Well, for…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3) Two spots the Falcons have always done well in since 2008, the first year of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, have been off of a loss and at home. Matt Ryan is 30-19 ATS at home in his career and 23-11 ATS off…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1) The Seahawks are basically an auto-bet at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 43-19 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 42-19-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.73 points per game. This is…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-2) The Texans lost a hard fought battle with the Cowboys last week in Dallas, losing by a field goal in overtime. Now they have to turn around and play another game after 3 days rest. That will really hurt them here. Teams generally…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick
New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) The Eagles are 4-1, but they are a fraudulent 4-1. Of their 4 wins, 3 of them have come by 6 or less and 2 of them have come by 3 or less. The other one was a home game against the…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 6
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick Results
Against the Spread: 9-6 Straight Up: 12-3 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence: 1-1 Medium Confidence: 5-1 Low Confidence: 1-2 No Confidence: 2-1 Upset Picks: 1-1 Against the Spread: 48-27-1 Straight Up: 48-28 Pick of the Week: 3-2 High Confidence: 2-4 Medium Confidence: 19-5 Low Confidence: 12-8-1 No Confidence:…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) This is one of two games this week that I have no idea on. Unlike San Francisco/Kansas City, where I have strong arguments for each side, I don’t have a strong argument for either side here. There are no situational trends in…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2) The Panthers have lost their last two games by scores of 37-19 and 38-10, a combined margin of 46 points. As a result, the public seems very turned off of them, as they are heavily backing the underdog. However, I like the Panthers…
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