-
Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-1) The Packers fell flat in Detroit last week in a 19-7 loss, but things should be different this week in Chicago for a number of reasons. One, Detroit is a significantly better team than Chicago, an opinion I’ve held since the pre-season.…
-
Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1) The Jaguars are one of three remaining 0-3 teams. They have the worst point differential in the NFL at -75. The second worst is Tampa Bay at -50 and the majority of that (-42) came last week. The third worst is St.…
-
Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 4
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
-
Continue reading →: 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks Results
Against the Spread: 11-5 Straight Up: 10-6 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 1-0 Medium Confidence: 4-1 Low Confidence: 2-2 No Confidence: 3-2 Upset Picks: 1-1 Against the Spread: 31-17 Straight Up: 27-21 Pick of the Week: 2-1 High Confidence: 1-3 Medium Confidence: 13-2 Low Confidence: 6-5 No Confidence:…
-
Continue reading →: Houston Texans at New York Giants: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (2-0) at New York Giants (0-2) The Texans are one of three 2-0 teams that I think are fraudulent, along with the Bills and the Cardinals. The Bills are 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Cardinals barely beat the Chargers and then won here against…
-
Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1) The Ravens are generally not as good on the road as at home, going 42-10 at home since the start of the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era, outscoring opponents by an average of 9.96 points per game, as opposed to 30-29 on the road,…
-
Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at New York Jets: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1) The Jets are 2.5 point favorites here, but the public is still all over the Bears, suggesting that most people think the Bears are going to pull the upset. Usually when the majority of people think there will be an upset, it…
-
Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1) One of my favorites trends involves road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 101-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 86-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover…
-
Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1) This game is relatively meaningless for the Cowboys as compared to next week’s game against the Saints in Dallas. Teams are 74-117 ATS as road favorites before being home underdogs since 1989, including 20-39 ATS when both games are non-divisional. They could…
-
Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (0-2) at New England Patriots (1-1) The trends say that the Patriots should be the right side, as they have another easy game coming up in Kansas City next week, while the Raiders host the Dolphins next week. Teams are 68-44 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point…
-
Subscribe
Subscribed
Have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
