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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 12 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (9-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) The Falcons may be 9-1 and the Buccaneers may be 6-4, but the Buccaneers are playing better football right now. They’ve had 5 wins by a touchdown or less against sub .500 teams, including 4 at home. Denver is the only team…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Week 12 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Cleveland Browns (2-8) Charlie Batch will start this one for the Steelers. He should have started against the Ravens to begin with. He’s always been a solid backup quarterback who can win games when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt (5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS since joining the…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: Week 12 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (7-2) at New Orleans Saints (5-5) Colin Kaepernick will start this one for the 49ers. Kaepernick was incredibly impressive against a tough Bears defense on Monday Night, going 16 of 23 for 243 yards and 2 scores in a 32-7 win over the Jay Cutler-less Bears. Against…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts: Week 12 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4) I’ve called Indianapolis a perpetually underrated team all year. Starting week 2, they were home dogs for Minnesota, 3 point home favorites for Jacksonville, touchdown home dogs for the Packers, 3.5 point road dogs against the Jets, 1 point home favorites for Cleveland,…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 12 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-9) There are two trends that apply to this game, but both of them can be neutralized by the fact that this matchup is divisional. Home dogs are 57-40 ATS off a loss as home dogs since 2002, but that only 13-10 ATS…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins: Week 12 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at Miami Dolphins (4-6) As I mentioned in the Tennessee/Jacksonville write up, one situation I love betting on is road favorites after a bye. It’s strong for divisional matchups, as teams are 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye since 2002, but that trend is…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 12 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) One of the most powerful trends applies to road favorites after a bye. Since 2002, teams are 44-15 ATS as road favorites right after a bye, including 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye. I only heavily bet on this trend…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at New York Giants: Week 12 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (7-3) at New York Giants (6-4) What’s wrong with the Giants? That’s what everyone is asking. Well, they do this every year. Since Tom Coughlin took over, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of a season and 27-39 in the last 8 games of…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers: Week 12 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (8-2) at San Diego Chargers (4-6) The Chargers haven’t beaten a team other than the Chiefs since week 2, when they beat the Titans, who aren’t exactly great either and then before that they beat Oakland. Why would anyone pick them to beat the Ravens? Well, that seems…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 12 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (3-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-5) Every year, one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. The Bengals now stand at 5-5, but I won’t rule out them losing out. The Lions at 4-6 are the favorite this year and I also won’t rule out that…
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