Quarterback

The Texans went 12-5 last season, but there are reasons to believe they won’t win that many games again in 2026. For one, their turnover margin of +17, 2nd best in the league last season, is not sustainable year-to-year, as turnover margin is one of the least predictive metrics year-to-year. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Texans ranked just 14th last season, which is much more predictive year-to-year and which suggests they were not as good as their record would suggest. On top of that, while their defense was elite, ranking 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, their offense ranked just 28th and offensive performance is much more predictive year-to-year than defensive performance, meaning chances are higher that their offense will remain one of the worst in the league than the chances that their defense will remain one of the best.

As with most bad offenses, a lot of the blame can fall on the quarterback position. CJ Stroud, selected 2nd overall in 2023, looked like a future star when he completed 63.9% of his passes for an average of 8.23 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions as a rookie, en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he has regressed to 63.8% completion, 7.09 YPA, and 39 touchdowns to 20 interceptions over the past two seasons combined. Even when Stroud played well as a rookie, this offense wasn’t that good, ranking 16th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but they fell to 23rd in 2024, before being a bottom-5 unit in 2025.

Going forward, it is tough to know what to predict from Stroud. He is only going into his age 25 season, has already shown a high ceiling, and if he can regain his rookie year form, that will go a long way towards keeping this team in the playoff picture in 2026, even if their turnover margin and defensive performance aren’t as good as a year ago, but with that ceiling only being achieved in one of three seasons in the league, it seems more likely than not that his 2026 season will more closely resemble his 2024 and 2025 season than his 2023 season.

Stroud will continue being backed up by Davis Mills, a solid backup option who wasn’t really a downgrade from Stroud in the three games he started in Stroud’s absence last season. In 28 career starts, Mills has completed 61.8% of his passes for an average of 6.40 YPA, 40 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions. He went just 5-19-1 in his first stint as a starter from 2021-2022, but those were his first two seasons in the league and he had a really poor roster around him, so the team’s struggles weren’t really his fault. Still only in his age 28 season, he could wind up getting another chance to start somewhere soon, perhaps even in Houston, if Stroud can’t turn it around.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

Along with their quarterback play, offensive line play was a big part of the problem for the Texans in 2025, as it has been for the last few seasons. In terms of win rate, the Texans ranked 30th in pass blocking and 32nd in run blocking. Ten different players made starts upfront for the Texans last season as they unsuccessfully tried to find a combination that worked. The Texans changed things up some more this season, bringing back just six of those ten and adding another five new options this off-season, but it is unclear if this offensive line will actually be significantly better.

Right guard Ed Ingram was the Texans’ best offensive lineman last season and the Texans prioritized bringing him back as a free agent, signing him to a 3-year, 37.5 million dollar deal. Ingram was only a slightly above average starter last season, as he was only the Texans’ best offensive lineman by default. He is also a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, struggling in each of his first three seasons in the league as a starter prior to last season. Ingram was a 2nd round pick in 2022, so he has always had talent and it is possible he has permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starter, still only going into his age 27 season, but there is at least some possibility of regression in 2026.

Ingram is likely one of two players locked into a starting role on this offensive line, with the other being left tackle Aireontae Ersery, who started all 16 games he played last season, including 15 at left tackle after being the week 1 starter at right tackle. Ersery wasn’t particularly good though, playing at an overall slightly below average level, and is mostly locked into the starting job because of the lack of a better option and because of his potential as a 2025 2nd round pick. Ersery could definitely be better in his second season in the league, but that is not a guarantee and unless he gets a lot better he is an underwhelming option at the offensive line’s most important position.

The right tackle job will probably go to free agent addition Braden Smith, who signed a to 2-year, 20 million dollar deal this off-season, suggesting the Texans view him as at least the heavy favorite to be a starter. Smith used to be an above average starting option, but he has missed 16 games over the past three seasons, his performance has declined to only the level of only an average starter over the past two seasons, and now he heads into his age 30 season, so he is unlikely to bounce back to his old form and could decline further and/or miss more time.

If Smith misses time, the right tackle job would likely go to either Trent Brown or Blake Fisher, who could also compete with Smith for the starting job. Brown is an experienced starter with 103 starts in 11 seasons in the league, seeing significant action at both left and right tackle, and he was still decent in 7 starts last season, but he is now going into his age 33 season and has a concerning injury history that has cost him multiple games in 8 of 11 seasons in the league. 

The 1-year, 5.5 million dollar contract the Texans gave Brown to stay this off-season suggests the Texans at least value him as a solid swing tackle and there is a good chance he makes multiple starts this season. Blake Fisher, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2024 and could still have untapped upside, only going into his age 23 season, but he has been underwhelming across 674 snaps thus far in his career and is probably behind both Smith and Brown on the depth chart.

At left guard and center, the Texans will have a competition between free agent addition Wyatt Teller, only a left guard option, first round pick Keylan Rutledge, a collegiate guard who may be asked to move to center, incumbent center Jake Andrews, and free agent addition Evan Brown, who has experience at both guard and center in his career. Teller signed a 2-year, 16 million dollar deal that, like Braden Smith’s deal, suggests the Texans at least view him as a heavy favorite to start. He has started 101 games, all at guard, in eight seasons in the league, but his performance has declined from that of an above average starter to an average starter over the past two seasons, he has missed time with injury in six of eight seasons in the league, and he is now heading into his age 32 season.

In the likely scenario that Teller starts at left guard, the rookie Keylan Rutledge will probably start at center because that is his best chance to start as a rookie, but he doesn’t have any experience there, he was a bit of a reach in the first round, and the Texans won’t hand the rookie a starting job, so it is possible the center job either goes to Andrews, a 2023 4th round pick who was mediocre in 16 starts as a first time starter last season, or free agent addition Evan Brown, who has mostly been a decent starter in 68 career starts (53 at guard and 15 at center), but who is now heading into his age 30 season. 

The Texans also added guard Febechi Nwaiwu in the 4th round of the draft, but it seems unlikely he is a serious candidate to start week one, and they still have Jarrett Patterson, a 2023 6th round pick who has started 21 games in three seasons in the league, 17 at center and 4 at guard, but who has consistently been mediocre regardless of where he has played and who probably also isn’t a serious candidate to start week one. 

The Texans spent significant resources trying to improve this offensive line, including their first round pick and two significant contracts to free agents, but both free agents are injury prone and on the wrong side of 30 and the rookie was a reach who is not guaranteed to start in week 1. The Texans at least have options on the offensive line, but it remains to be seen if any of them will be better than an average starter and the result could be another year with a bunch of different offensive line combinations and overall below average results. 

Grade: C+

Running Backs

The Texans’ also struggled in the run game last season, ranking 29th in the NFL with 3.90 yards per carry. Part of the problem was the blocking, but the running backs themselves were part of the problem, as their two leaders in carries, Woody Marks with 196 and Nick Chubb with 122, averaged just 2.59 yards per carry before contact and 2.69 yards per carry before contact respectively and had missed tackle rates of 20.5% and 13.8% respectively.

The Texans addressed this need by trading for David Montgomery from the Lions, giving up a 4th round pick, among other late round picks, as well as backup offensive lineman Juice Scruggs. In seven seasons in the league, Montgomery has 1,477 carries for 6,115 yards (4.14 YPC) and 59 touchdowns, while averaging 2.87 yards per carry after contact, a 20.3% missed tackle rate, a 48.0% carry success rate, and 1.13 yards per route run. 

Montgomery’s workload and the caliber of his blocking will probably be more similar in Houston to what it was in Chicago than what it was in Detroit, when he averaged 3.94 YPC and a 45.2% carry success rate on 229 carries per season, as opposed to 4.46 YPC and a 52.5% carry success rate on 187 carries per season in Detroit, but he should still be at least somewhat of an upgrade for the Texans over what they had last season.

Nick Chubb was not retained as a free agent, but Marks, a 2025 4th round pick, is still around as a change of pace backup and could be better in that role in his second season in the league than he was as the lead back as a rookie. He should especially benefit from the lighter workload because he is a bit undersized at 5-10 208 and frequently left the field with injuries as a rookie, even if he only ended up missing one full game. The Texans also have 2024 6th round pick Jahwar Jordan as the third string running back and he flashed potential with 4.49 YPC on the first 43 carries of his career last season as an injury fill-in when Marks and/or Chubb missed time. He figures to remain an insurance option in 2026. This is a decent but unspectacular backfield overall.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

The Texans’ best offensive player is wide receiver Nico Collins, who has been one of the best wide receivers in the league over the past three seasons. Despite an inconsistent quarterback under center, Collins has averaged a 89/1384/9 slash line per 17 games since the start of the 2023 season on an average of 133 targets per 17 games (10.40 yards per target) and 3.75 yards per route run. The one concern with Collins is durability, as he’s missed multiple games in all five seasons in the league with 19 total games missed in his career, but when healthy he is as good as almost any wide receiver in the league and he’s still very much in his prime in his age 27 season.

The problem is the Texans have lacked a good #2 receiver opposite him in the past couple seasons, but there are reasons for optimism this season. For one, the Texans have a pair of second year wide receivers who showed promise as rookies and could take a step forward in year two. Second round pick Jayden Higgins and third round pick Jaylen Noel both averaged depth 1.45 yards per route run averages as rookies, though Higgins is likely to be the better receiver in 2026, as he is more experienced (671 snaps vs. 304 snaps last season) and was drafted higher because of his higher upside.

The Texans could also get Tank Dell back from injury. Dell was a good #2 receiver for the Texans in 2023, with a 47/709/7 slash line on just 75 targets (9.45 yards per target) in just 11 games, while averaging 2.22 yards per route run, and it looked like the 2023 3rd round pick would form a great duo with Collins long-term, but injuries have completely derailed his career. Dell’s rookie season was ended early by a broken leg and he did not seem like himself for most of 2024 upon his return, managing just a 51/667/3 slash line on 81 targets (8.23 yards per target) in 14 games, while averaging 1.44 yards per route run. 

Right when Dell started looking like himself again down the stretch in 2024, he suffered a brutal multi ligament tear in his knee in week 16, missing the rest of the 2024 season and the entirety of the 2025 season. Dell has now suffered two major leg injuries in his career, which is especially a concern for an undersized wide receiver (5-10 165) whose game is extremely dependent on his elite speed. What the Texans can get out of Dell in 2026 and beyond remains to be seen and it is far from a guarantee that he is ready for the start of the season, but at the very least the fact that Dell seems likely to play at all this season could be a little bit of a boost for this offense. 

The Texans also have Xavier Hutchinson, who actually finished 2nd among Texans wide receivers in snaps last season with 672, with Dell out and the rookies being eased into action. Hutchinson was very underwhelming though, managing just a 35/428/3 slash line on 57 targets (7.51 yards per target), with 1.07 yards per route run. The 2023 6th round pick has averaged just 0.76 yards per route run in his career and, with Dell expected to return to action and both Higgins and Noel likely to see higher snap counts in their second season in the league, Hutchinson could be as far down as 5th on the depth chart this season, which would be a good thing for this offense.

Dalton Schultz remains as the starter at tight end. In six seasons in the league as a starter, Schultz has been decent, but unspectacular, averaging a 69/691/5 slash line per 17 games and 1.33 yards per route run. He’s going into his age 30 season in 2026 and could start to decline, but the Texans should get more out of their wide receivers this season, so it seems unlikely that Schultz will rank second on the team in targets (a career high 106) like he did a year ago, which would be for the best. The Texans also drafted Schultz’s potential future successor Marlin Klein in the second round of the draft and he could cut into Schultz’s playing time somewhat as a rookie. 

Besides Klein, other depth options at tight end include veteran free agent addition Foster Moreau, a decent career backup with an average of 1.26 yards per route run, incumbent backup Cade Stover, a 2024 4th round pick who has averaged just 0.97 yards per route run in two seasons in the league, and Brevin Jordan, who showed promise with 1.59 yards per route run as the backup tight end in 2023, but has subsequently missed back-to-back years with ACL tears and only has a career 1.19 yards per route run. Klein shouldn’t have too hard of a time beating out any of those options for the primary backup role behind Schultz. The arrow is pointing up for this receiving corps, but much of the reason for that is expected jumps from young players and the return of Tank Dell, all of whom come with some downside.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned earlier, defensive performance tends to be more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance, but the Texans do have a better chance than most elite defenses of being elite again in 2026 because they were able to keep most of the same personnel, with all of their top-11 in terms of snaps played a year ago returning. The player who played the most for this defense that is no longer there is interior defender Tim Settle, who played 383 snaps in 12 games. Settle fared pretty well in that role, providing solid run defense and solid pass rush (7.9% pressure rate), but the Texans replaced him with second round pick Kayden McDonald and free agent Logan Hall, who they signed to a 2-year, 13.75 million deal. 

A second round pick in 2022, Hall was below average on an average of 494 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league, but he took a step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2025, playing a career high 611 snaps and providing solid run defense and pass rush (8.9% pressure rate). Hall could regress a little in 2026, but he is also only going into his age 26 season, so he could have permanently turned a corner and he probably won’t have to play as many snaps as he did last season, so he could easily be a solid rotational player, similar to Settle.

The Texans retained Sheldon Rankins as a free agent on a 2-year, 17 million dollar deal and he figures to remain the team’s leader in snaps among interior defenders, after doing so with 623 snaps last season. Rankins is a consistently above average player, particularly playing well as a pass rusher, with 33.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 8.2% pressure rate in 133 career games, including 3 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate in 17 games last season. The concerns are that he is going into his age 32 season and that he has a significant injury history, as last season was his first since 2018 that he didn’t miss any time and, in total, he has missed 32 games in ten seasons in the league. 

The good news is this group is deeper than a year ago with both Hall and McDonald being added to replace Settle, so they might not need as much out of Rankins as they got a year ago. Along with Rankins, Hall, and McDonald, who figure to rotate heavily as the Texans’ top-3 interior defenders, the Texans also have Tommy Togiai, who was above average across 459 snaps last season, especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 1.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate. 

Whether or not that continues in 2026 remains to be seen, as Togiai struggled across 599 snaps in the first four seasons of his career prior to 2025. He is a former 4th round pick and he is only going into his age 27 season, so it is possible he has somewhat permanently turned a corner, but I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as good in 2026. Still, this is a deep position group, even if they lack true high end talent and have some players who might not be as good as they were a year ago.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The strength of this high level defense is the edge defender duo of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, who were both among the best edge defenders in the league last season. Anderson, selected 3rd overall in 2023, has totaled 30 sacks, 34 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate in 46 games in three seasons in the league, while consistently playing at a high level against the run, including 12 sacks, 11 hits, and a 19.4% pressure rate in 17 games last season. At this point, it would be a surprise if he didn’t at some point win a Defensive Player of the Year award, if not multiple, still only going into his age 25 season.

Hunter is not as good, but only by default. In 153 career games, he has 114.5 sacks, 78 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate, while consistently providing above average run defense, and in 2025 he had 15 sacks, 9 hits, and a 16.6% pressure rate in 17 games. The concern with him is that he is going into his age 32 season, but he has yet to decline and, even if he does decline somewhat in 2026, he should still remain a well above average player at the very least.

A small concern at this position group is their lack of depth. Anderson and Hunter played 694 snaps and 728 snaps respectively last season and could probably play more if they need to, so depth isn’t needed that much as long as they are healthy, but if either misses time, the Texans would be in trouble. Derek Barnett, who was solid across 350 snaps as the top reserve last season, is no longer on the team, leaving Dylan Horton, who struggled across 245 snaps last season, as the top reserve option. A 2023 4th round pick, Horton has provided below average play across 211 snaps per season in three seasons in the league, including a mere 7.9% pressure rate. He would obviously be a big downgrade from either Anderson or Hunter if he had to fill in for them.

The Texans also signed Dominique Robinson, another underwhelming backup option, this off-season. A 5th round pick in 2022, Robinson has been below average across 273 snaps per season in four seasons in the league, struggling against the run and adding just a 5.9% pressure rate. Other options are 2024 7th round pick Solomon Byrd, who has played 20 snaps in two seasons in the league, and Ali Gaye, who has played 214 snaps in three seasons in the league. As bad as their depth is, Anderson and Hunter are such a good starting duo that it is hard to not consider this one of, if not the best edge defender group in the league.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Every down linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is also part of the reason for this defense’s success, playing at an above average level in each of the past three seasons. Still in his relative prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2026. Unfortunately, the rest of this linebacking corps is not nearly as good. Henry To’oTo’o has been marginal at best as the starter next to Al-Shaair over the past two seasons, on snap counts of 830 and 818. The 2023 5th round pick is only in his age 25 season, so he could have some untapped upside, but that is not a guarantee.

Meanwhile, EJ Speed, who was already a liability as the third linebacker, across 429 snaps last season, suffered a quad injury this off-season and is questionable for the start of the season. Even if he is able to play at the beginning of the season, he could be beaten out for his job by 4th round rookie Wade Woodaz, although if Woodaz wins the job it would probably say more about Speed than it would about Woodaz’s NFL readiness. Al-Shaair elevates the overall grade of this group, but this is still only a slightly above average group.

Grade: B+

Secondary

In the secondary, the Texans have a trio of high level players and all are relatively young. Cornerback Derek Stingley was a borderline All-Pro caliber player in both 2023 and 2024 and, while he took a little bit of a step back in 2025, he was still an above average player and his relatively down year was the result of an oblique injury that didn’t cost him any games, but limited him in several. The third overall pick in 2022, Stingley is still only going into his age 25 season, so he could easily bounce back in 2026, though it’s worth noting that last season was his third out of four in the league in which he either missed significant time or was limited by an injury.

With Stingley having a bit of a down year, fellow starting cornerback Kamari Lassiter was actually the Texans’ best cornerback, playing at a borderline All-Pro level, after a solid rookie season in 2024 in which he played 799 snaps. A 2nd round pick in 2024, Lassiter is still only going into his age 23 season, which makes him younger than a lot of rookies, and he looks likely to be at least a well above average cornerback if not an All-Pro caliber player for years to come. 

Hybrid safety/slot cornerback Jalen Pitre also played at a borderline All-Pro level in 2025, after playing at an above average level in 2024. Pitre, a 2nd round pick in 2022, took a couple years to develop, but he is now a consistently above average player with the upside to be an All-Pro caliber player for years to come, going into his age 27 season. In base packages, he will start at safety opposite Calen Bullock, who is not as good as the Texans’ top-3 defensive backs, but who was a solid starter in 2025, after playing at an average level across 977 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2024. Still only in his age 23 season, Bullock could be even better in his third season in the league in 2026.

In base packages, the Texans figure to use three safety sets regularly, allowing Pitre to play on the slot. Unfortunately their third safety is free agent addition Reed Blankenship, who has started all 46 games he has played in the past three seasons for the Eagles, but has consistently been a liability, especially in coverage. He played on some high level defenses in Philadelphia and, like the Eagles, the Texans have enough talent to cover for Blankenship, especially with Blankenship being in a pure sub package role, but his presence in sub packages does give opposing offenses at least one player to target in the passing game, a liability the Texans did not have last season. 

Second year cornerback Jaylin Smith also figures to have a sub package role, although not nearly as big as Blankenship’s. A 3rd round pick, Smith has talent and upside, but only played 31 snaps last season, primarily due to injury, so it is tough to know what to expect from him in 2026, even in a limited role. Depth concerns hurt their overall grade somewhat, but this is a high level secondary with multiple elite starters.

Grade: A-

Kickers

Ka’imi Fairbairn has been the Texans’ primary kicker since 2017 and he has developed into one of the best kickers in the league, adding 25.18 points above an average kicker over the past four seasons, including 12.86 in 2025, good for second best in the NFL. He is going into his age 32 season, but kickers can continue playing at an elite level well into their 30s, so I wouldn’t expect any decline from him, other than the typical variance inherent to the kicker position. He should remain one of the best kickers in the league in 2026.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Texans finished significantly worse in schedule adjusted efficiency last season, 14th, than their record, 12-5, would suggest, which is not a good sign, as schedule adjusted efficiency tends to be much more predictive on a year-to-year basis than win/loss record. On top of that, offensive performance is much more predictive on a year-to-year basis than defensive performance, meaning chances are higher that their offense will remain one of the worst in the league than the chances that their defense will remain one of the best. They should still be in the mix for a playoff spot, but I wouldn’t expect them to win as many games as they did a year ago.

Prediction: 8-9, 3rd in AFC South