Quarterback

The Chiefs were the most disappointing team in the league in 2025. After three straight Super Bowl appearances, including Super Bowl victories at the end of the 2022 and 2023 seasons, the Chiefs fell all the way to 6-11 last season, leaving them far out of the post-season. The biggest reason for their sharp decline was close losses. After going 52-19 in one-score games in the first seven seasons of Patrick Mahomes’ career from 2018-2024, the Chiefs fell all the way to 1-9 in one-score games in 2025.

Injuries were part of the problem too. The Chiefs didn’t have more total injuries than most teams, but injuries disproportionately affected their best players and at the worst time. The Chiefs’ schedule was relatively harder in the first half of the season and they were relatively healthy then. When it came time for the easier part of their schedule, they were missing several key players on both sides of the ball and couldn’t take advantage of the easier schedule. By the end of the season, they were without their top-2 quarterbacks, their top wide receiver, three starting offensive linemen, as well as four defensive starters. Had their injuries been flipped and happened earlier in the season, the Chiefs probably would have ended up with a better record in close games and overall.

Despite all their injuries, the Chiefs finished last season 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is far more predictive than win/loss record year-to-year. The Chiefs are unlikely to bounce back to their pre-2025 winning percentage in close games, but they should be a lot better than a year ago. The Chiefs did lose some key players this off-season, but they did a good job adding talent too and they should be healthier. With an easier schedule in 2026, the result should be a much higher win total. The most important player the Chiefs need to get back from injury is quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

At one point, it seemed unlikely that Mahomes, who tore his ACL in week 15 of last season, would make it back for week 1, but his recovery has seemingly gone great, making it seem likely that he won’t miss any time at the start of the year. It is possible that Mahomes might not be 100% right away and Mahomes’ production had dipped in recent years anyway, going from 66.3% completion, 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 49 interceptions in the first 80 starts of his career through 2022, to 66.0% completion, 6.96 YPA, 75 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions in 46 starts in the past three seasons, largely due to a diminished supporting cast, but also partially due to Mahomes’ own regression. Mahomes is not over the hill for a quarterback though, going into his age 31 season, and his supporting cast could be better this season than it has been in recent years.

If Mahomes happens to miss any time at the start of the season or at any point this year, the Chiefs would turn to new backup quarterback Justin Fields, who is a good option as far as backups go. The 11th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Fields has struggled as a passer in his career, completing 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.83 YPA, 52 touchdowns, and 32 interceptions in 53 career starts, but he is an excellent runner, rushing for 2,892 yards and 23 touchdowns on 489 carries (5.91 YPC), and this is by far the best offensive coaching staff he has ever gotten to work with, so he could be surprisingly decent and keep this team afloat if he needs to start for a short period of time.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

After getting Patrick Mahomes back, the most important player for this Chiefs offense to get back and to stay healthy is wide receiver Rashee Rice. The Chiefs’ receiving corps has been a big concern for them in recent years, but Rice has flashed #1 wide receiver ability when on the field in the past three seasons, averaging 2.40 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2023, and totaling a 112/1270/9 slash line on 153 targets in his last 17 games. 

The problem is he has missed 22 games in the past two seasons due to a combination of injuries and off-the-field problems. This off-season, Rice had a clean up procedure on his knee and went to jail for failing a drug test while on probation, but it doesn’t seem likely that either will cost him any time. Still, it isn’t a good omen for a player whose injuries and off-the-field issues have cost him significant time and have hurt this offense significantly as a result. Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, Rice could have a huge 2026 season if he can stay on the field, but that is a big if. At the very least though, I would expect him to play more than the 415 snaps he played in 8 games last season.

If Rice misses time, the rest of this receiving corps is still a concern, but the Chiefs should also get a healthier season out of Xavier Worthy, who missed just three games last season with a shoulder injury suffered in week 1, but who seemed limited by it for the entire season. A first round pick in 2024, Worthy seemed on his way to developing into an above average wide receiver down the stretch as a rookie, averaging 2.00 yards per route run with a 58/679/6 slash line on 79 targets in his final 10 games of the season, including the post-season, but in 2025 he finished with just a 42/532/1 slash line and 1.25 yards per route run. Now in his third season in the league, it seems reasonable to assume he will bounce back if healthy, which would give the Chiefs at least one other capable wide receiver besides Rice, though Worthy will still be a clear #2 wide receiver behind Rice if both are healthy.

The #3 wide receiver will probably be Tyquan Thornton, who was the #5 wide receiver last season behind Hollywood Brown (1.49 yards per route run, 49/587/5 slash line) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (0.89 yards per route run, 33/345/1 slash line), both of whom are no longer on the roster. Thornton played a lot for a #5 wide receiver last season though (368 snaps), given that Rice and Worthy both missed time. Thornton averaged 1.70 yards per route run with 23.1 yards per catch and an average depth of target of 27.8, but he was very much a one trick pony as a deep threat. 

Thornton also only averaged 0.73 yards per route run in his career prior to last season, although last season was his first with a good quarterback and he was a 2nd round pick in 2022, so he has always had talent. He’s not a bad #3 wide receiver, but he’s not a particularly good one either and the Chiefs would be in trouble if Rice or Worthy missed significant time and Thornton had to be the #2. Behind Thornton, the Chiefs have 2025 4th round pick Jalen Royals, who only played 86 snaps as a rookie despite the Chiefs needing wide receiver help, and 5th round rookie Cyrus Allen as depth options.

The Chiefs also still have Travis Kelce, who has remained a big part of this offense in the past few years mostly out of necessity, as his yards per target has fallen to 7.34 in the past three seasons, down from 9.04 in his first nine seasons in the league, and his yards per route run has fallen to 1.60, down from 2.16 in his first nine seasons in the league. He has still received target totals of 121, 133, and 108 in the past three seasons, but, especially with him now going into his age 37 season, the Chiefs would probably like that number to come down, with more targets going to wide receivers who are more capable of making more explosive plays. Kelce is still a reliable target who has great chemistry with Mahomes, but his explosiveness has been gone for several years.

Kelce will remain being backed up by Noah Gray, who has averaged 601 snaps per season in that role over the past four seasons. He’s only averaged 0.96 yards per route run in his career and he’s not a particularly good blocker either, but he’s not a bad option as far as #2 tight ends go. If the Chiefs get more out of their wide receivers this season, Gray could see his snap count drop as the Chiefs use more three wide receiver sets and fewer two tight end sets. With Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy both possibly giving the Chiefs significantly more in 2026 than 2025, the arrow is pointing up for this group, but there are still significant concerns.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Chiefs’ offensive line should be healthier in 2026, after left tackle Josh Simmons missed nine games last season, right guard Trey Smith missed five games, and right tackle Jawaan Taylor missed five games. Taylor is no longer with the team, but he was a liability last season, while his replacement Jaylon Moore could be an upgrade. Moore has only made 18 starts in five seasons in the league, but he has consistently been a solid starter when he has gotten a chance. He is still a projection to a season-long starting role, but it shouldn’t be a surprise if he is at least a decent starter this season.

Moore will start opposite Simmons, who was the Chiefs’ first round pick in 2025. Simmons was only average as a rookie, but he could take a step forward in his second season in the league, especially since he’ll be another year removed from the torn patellar tendon that ended his final collegiate season and caused the top-15 talent to fall to the Chiefs at the 32nd pick. The time he missed last season was with an unrelated injury and if he can stay healthy, he has the potential to be an above average starter long-term, although that is not a guarantee.

Trey Smith was the offensive lineman they missed the most, as he has consistently been an above average starter in 79 starts in five seasons in the league, missing just one game in his career aside from last season. Still only in his age 27 season, that should continue in 2026. The Chiefs’ best offensive lineman is center Creed Humphrey, who has been an All-Pro caliber player since entering the league as a 2nd round pick in 2021, while making all 85 possible starts. Also still in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2026. 

Rounding out this offensive line is left guard Kingsley Suamataia, a 2024 2nd round pick who was a disaster in limited action (195 snaps) as a rookie at left tackle, but who seemed to settle down when he moved inside to left guard in 2025, where he was a decent starter, while making all 17 starts. It shouldn’t be a surprise if he continues developing and is better in 2026 than 2025 as a result, still only in his age 23 season and possessing a high upside.

The Chiefs’ depth is a little bit of a concern, in the likely case that one of the Chiefs’ starting five offensive linemen miss at least some time with injury in 2026. Swing tackle Wanya Morris was a 3rd round pick in 2023, but he has failed to develop, struggling in 16 career starts. Meanwhile, Mike Caliendo, the likely top reserve on the interior, has been mediocre in seven starts in four seasons in the league. The Chiefs do have a solid starting five, with an upgrade at right tackle compared to a year ago, and they should be healthier than they were down the stretch last season, but their lack of depth hurts their overall grade a little bit.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The biggest free agent addition the Chiefs made this off-season was signing ex-Seahawk Kenneth Walker to a 3-year, 43.05 million dollar deal this off-season, making him the 6th highest paid running back in the league in terms of average annual salary. He figures to be a massive upgrade for a team whose lead backs Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco averaged 3.75 YPC and 3.92 YPC on 163 carries and 118 carries respectively last season.

One of the most elusive and hard to tackle running backs in the league, Walker has a career missed tackle rate of 27.0%, while averaging 3.03 yards per carry after contact. He was held back by poor run blocking for much of his four years in Seattle, but, unsurprisingly, he averaged about 4.6 yards per carry in each of his two seasons with adequate blocking (2022 and 2025). His pass protection leaves something to be desired, but he can make plays as a receiver as well, averaging 1.16 yards per route run for his career, including a career best 1.44 in 2025. 

He has had some durability issues (9 games missed) and the Seahawks have preferred to use him in a heavy rotation with Zach Charbonnet, so he has just 821 regular season carries in four seasons in the league, but he showed his feature back potential in the post-season last year after Charbonnet got hurt, averaging 4.82 YPC on 65 carries in three games, en route to winning Super Bowl MVP. Finally getting a chance to be the clear lead back, on an offense with a lot of talent around him, Walker has a massive statistical upside, still only in his age 26 season.

With Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco both gone, the Chiefs used a 5th round pick on Emmett Johnson to potentially be the #2 running back, though he would be a true backup in that role and would not significantly cut into Walker’s workload. The Chiefs also added Emari Demercado in free agency to compete with incumbent passing down specialist Brashard Smith, but neither of them are a strong candidate for a significant role as a runner, with Smith totaling just 44 carries (3.43 YPC) as a rookie last season and Demercado totaling just 126 carries in three seasons in the league. 

Smith fared well in his passing down role last season though, averaging 1.59 yards per route run and finishing with a 25/172/1 slash line. He is probably a stronger candidate than Demercado, who has averaged just 0.87 yards per route run in his career, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Smith’s passing game role expanded further in the 2025 7th round pick’s second season in the league. With Kenneth Walker being added, they should be a lot better at the running back position than a year ago.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Chiefs’ defense was the strength of their team last season, ranking 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency, as opposed to 15th on offense. While their offense should be better, due to the addition of Kenneth Walker and expected better health in the receiving corps and on the offensive line, their defense could be significantly worse after losing eight of their top-16 in terms of snaps from a year ago. They did add some replacements and not all those departures are going to be impactful, but this unit will look significantly different than a year ago and probably won’t be as good.

Two of the less impactful departures were interior defenders Derrick Nnadi and Jerry Tillery, who were liabilities across snap counts of 308 and 374. Nnadi was a decent run defender, but he was so bad as a pass rusher (2.8% pressure rate) that he was below average overall, while Tillery was a decent pass rusher (6.2% pressure rate), but so bad as a run defender that he was below average overall. The Chiefs also upgraded on Nnadi and Tillery with free agent addition Khyiris Tonga and 29th overall pick Peter Woods. 

Tonga is at his best as a run defender at 6-4 338, but also has a career 7.0% pressure rate. The concerns are that he has never played more than 337 snaps in a season and now is heading into his age 30 season, but he could easily remain a useful rotational player. Woods, meanwhile, has the potential to be an above average starter both as a run defender and a pass rusher long-term, though he could have some growing pains in year one. Additionally, the Chiefs could get more out of Omarr Norton-Lott, a 2025 2nd round pick who was limited to 72 nondescript snaps as a rookie because of a torn ACL. His recovery from that injury complicates his projection, but he could become a solid rotational player in his second season in the league.

Chris Jones will probably still be the Chiefs’ best interior defender and he has been one of the best interior defenders in the league for most of his 10-year career, but he is going into his age 32 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined at least somewhat in 2026. Jones has been at his best as a pass rusher in his career, with 79 sacks, 129 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate in 123 games since 2018, but his run defense hasn’t been a liability either. Even if he isn’t at his best in 2026, he should remain at least an above average starter. He elevates the overall grade of a position group that figures to be better this year than it was last year, due to the additions of Khyiris Tonga and Peter Woods.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

Another two losses that won’t be significant are edge defenders Charles Omenihu (567 snaps) and Mike Danna (389 snaps), who had pressure rates of just 8.9% and 4.7% respectively last season. Omenihu’s pressure rate was hurt by the fact that he is a hybrid player who lined up on the interior in passing situations, while Danna somewhat made up for his lack of pass rush with decent run defense, but neither of them figure to be missed much.

To replace them, the Chiefs used a second round pick on R Mason Thomas, who could be an upgrade even as a rookie and who has a clearly higher upside than either Omenihu or Danna. The Chiefs are also hoping to get more out of 2025 3rd round pick Ashton Gillotte, who was mediocre across 485 snaps as a rookie, but who could take a step forward in year two. The wild card of the group is Felix Anudike-Uzomah, a first round pick in 2023 who has only played 550 snaps in three seasons in the league due to ineffectiveness and injury, including a 2025 season where he didn’t play a snap because of a hamstring injury. Only in his age 24 season, he still has potential, but it is tough to expect much out of him.

Like at the interior defender position, the Chiefs still have their top player at the edge defender position from a year ago, George Karlaftis, a 2022 1st round pick who has 24.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 48 games over the past three seasons, while also providing decent run defense. Still in his prime in his age 25 season, I expect more of the same from him in 2026. This isn’t a great position group, but at the very least they aren’t worse than they were a year ago, even after a couple off-season departures.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The loss of linebacker Leo Chenal is not that impactful, not because is isn’t a good player, but because he only played 440 snaps in 14 games last season as a part-time player, stuck behind a pair of talented linebackers in Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill, who both remain on the roster. Bolton is the better of the two, playing at an above average level in each of the past four seasons, while playing 60.5 snaps per game in 58 games during that stretch. Tranquill is not quite as good and is going into his age 31 season, but he has been a solid player who has played 49.1 snaps per game in 66 games over the past four seasons, so even if he declines this season, he should at least remain a decent #2 starting linebacker. Bolton, meanwhile, is going into his age 26 season and should be in his prime for several more seasons.

Depth is a concern without Chenal though, with 2025 5th round pick Jeffrey Bassa likely to be the third linebacker in his absence, after playing just 40 snaps as a rookie. The Chiefs will probably use three linebackers at the same time less frequently with Bassa in that role than they did with Chenal in that role, but if Bolton or Tranquill miss time with injury, Bassa would then have to play an every down role, in which he would likely be a liability unless he exceeds expectations in his second season in the league. It is a concern in an otherwise solid linebacking corps.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Chiefs’ secondary is the unit that lost the most, with cornerback Trent McDuffie, cornerback Jaylen Watson, and safety Bryan Cook all no longer on the roster, after all were above average starters in 2025. To replace McDuffie and Watson, the Chiefs traded up and used the 6th overall pick on cornerback Mansoor Delane. Delane has a high upside and could be a solid starter right away, but even if he is, he’s unlikely to be as good as McDuffie or Watson and he definitely isn’t good enough to replace both of them.

The good news is the Chiefs have 2025 3rd round pick Nohl Williams waiting in the wings, after playing at a high level across 458 snaps as a rookie. Williams is a projection to a larger role and might not be as good as he was last season in a smaller role, but even if he isn’t he could easily be at least a solid starter opposite Delane. Additionally, the Chiefs signed veteran Kader Kohou and he figures to at least play in three cornerback sets with Delane and Williams. Kohou missed all of 2025 with a torn ACL, but he was a decent player across an average snap count of 847 in his first three seasons in the league, prior to last season’s injury. He might struggle immediately upon his return from injury, but the good news he will be over a full year removed from getting hurt by week 1 and, even with the injury recovery taken into account, he’s not a bad #3 cornerback option.

The Chiefs also have several depth options behind their top-3 cornerbacks. Kristian Fulton has 53 starts in six seasons in the league since being selected in the 2nd round in 2020 and has been a decent starter at times, but also has mostly been a liability as a starter and played just 208 snaps last season. Chris Roland-Wallace went undrafted in 2024, but has flashed some potential as a slot cornerback in 384 snaps in two seasons in the league. Jadon Canady was a 4th round pick in this year’s draft. Kaiir Elam was a first round pick by the Bills in 2022 and is still only going into his age 25 season, but has mostly struggled across 1,475 career snaps and is now on his 4th team and seemingly running out of chances. They will compete for backup jobs behind a likely top-3 of Delane, Williams, and Kohou. 

To replace Brian Cook at safety, the Chiefs signed Alohi Gilman, who isn’t quite as good as Cook, but who is also a solid starter in his own right and has the versatility to play on the slot and at safety, which allows the Chiefs to play some three safety sets in sub packages. Gilman will start next to Chamarri Conner, who remains on the roster, but who has mostly been a liability since being selected in the 4th round in 2023. 

Conner could face some competition for the starting job from Jaden Hicks, a 2024 4th round pick who has been decent on snap counts of 330 and 445 in two seasons in the league, but who is a projection to a larger role. If he can’t beat out Conner, he will play a similar snap count as he did last season as the third safety. This secondary isn’t as good as they were last year, but they aren’t as bad as they could have been, given that they lost a trio of above average starters.

Grade: B

Kickers

Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker was once one of the best kickers in the league, adding 32.80 points above average in his first seven seasons in the league from 2017-2023, finishing above average in six of seven seasons. However, in the past two seasons, he has had back-to-back below average seasons, costing the Chiefs 2.59 points in 2024 and 2.47 points in 2025. That could be the start of a new trend, but Butker isn’t totally over the hill for a kicker, going into his age 31 season, and could bounce back at least somewhat in 2026. At the very least, the Chiefs still seem to believe in him, keeping him on the roster as the only kicker as of this writing.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Chiefs had a lot of bad luck with close losses (1-9 in one-score games), leading to them going just 6-11, despite ranking 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency. They also had a lot of untimely injuries last season down the stretch last season. Fortunately, schedule adjusted efficiency is more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record and the Chiefs should also be healthier this season. Unfortunately, their roster is probably not as good overall as it was last season, particularly on defense, which lost some key players, though their offense should be better due to the addition of running back Kenneth Walker. Ultimately, this team should be in the mix for a playoff spot and the division title, but I am not sure if I would consider them true contenders.

Prediction: 11-6, 1st in AFC West