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Continue reading →: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks: Super Bowl LX Pick
New England Patriots (17-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (16-3) in Super Bowl LX The Seahawks are the better of these two teams, but I don’t think the gap between these two teams is big enough to justify a 4.5-point spread, with about 30% of games decided by 4 points or fewer.…
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Continue reading →: 2021 NFL Draft Redo
1. Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) There are a lot of great players in this draft, but, as a rule of thumb, I tend to prioritize franchise quarterbacks going to quarterback needy teams over any other position and I tend to stick with the original pick whenever it…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 NFC Championship Pick
Los Angeles Rams (14-5) at Seattle Seahawks (15-3) The winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl, but there is an argument that this is the actual Super Bowl, as these have been by every measure the two best teams in the league this season. The Seahawks rank 1st…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Championship Pick
New England Patriots (16-3) at Denver Broncos (15-3) The Broncos won a dramatic overtime game over the Bills last week, but got devastating news after the game when they found out that Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle on one of the last plays of the game and…
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Continue reading →: 2025 NFL Divisional Round Picks
High Confidence Picks LAR 34 (-4) CHI 24 Medium Confidence Picks BUF 23 (+1.5) DEN 20 Upset Pick +105 Low Confidence Picks SEA 20 SF 14 (+7) NE 21 (-3) HOU 16
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: 2025 AFC Divisional Round Pick
Buffalo Bills (13-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3) These two teams met in the first round of the post-season last year and the Bills covered fairly easily as 8-point favorites, winning 31-7. This time around, the Broncos are favored by 1.5. What has changed since then? Well for one, this game…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: 2025 NFC Divisional Round Pick
Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at Chicago Bears (12-6) These two teams finished with similar records, with the Rams only winning one more game than the Bears, but statistically there is a big gap between these two teams. While the Bears mostly played close games, winning by more than one score…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 NFC Divisional Round Pick
San Francisco 49ers (13-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3) This is the third time these two divisional opponents have met this season. The 49ers opened the season with a 17-13 win in Seattle week 1, in which the 49ers won the first down rate battle by 0.73 and the yards per…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at New England Patriots: 2025 AFC Divisional Round Pick
Houston Texans (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-3) The Patriots enter this game with significant edges in first down rate differential (+3.36% vs. +1.93%) and yards per play differential (+1.10 vs. +0.48) compared to the Texans, which are both much more predictive than win/loss records. The Texans have faced a…
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Continue reading →: 2025 NFL Wild Card Round Picks
High Confidence Picks LAR 34 (-10) CAR 17 PIT 19 (+3.5) HOU 17 Upset Pick +150 Medium Confidence Picks SF 26 (+6) PHI 24 Upset Pick +210 Low Confidence Picks NE 27 LAC 24 (+3.5) No Confidence Picks JAX 24 BUF 23 (+1.5) GB 24 CHI 23 (+2)
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